Author Topic: Iraq Chaos?  (Read 2051 times)

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_JS

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Iraq Chaos?
« on: November 01, 2006, 01:03:37 PM »
Pentagon admits extent of Iraq disorder

Mark Tran
Wednesday November 1, 2006

Guardian Unlimited

The US military has confirmed Iraq is close to chaos, in a classified briefing prepared just two weeks ago, which gives a stark assessment of the country.

With Iraq the overriding issue for voters in the elections to Congress, the grim portrayal from the US Central Command, which has responsibility for the Middle East, can only provide further ammunition for Democrats in the last few days of campaigning before next Tuesday's vote.

The polls indicate that the Democrats will gain the 15 seats needed to retake control of the House of Representatives, which the Republicans have controlled since 1994. The Senate, where the Democrats need six seats is more of long shot.

The classified briefing, obtained by the New York Times, features a colour-coded bar chart, showing the rapidly deteriorating situation in Iraq. The bar is green at one end, signifying peace, red at the other signifying chaos. The current indicator is practically in the red area.

The briefing contains a summary that includes phrases such as "urban areas experiencing 'ethnic cleansing' campaigns to consolidate control" and "violence at all-time high, spreading geographically."

The Pentagon cites increasing activity by militias and the ineffectiveness of Iraqi government security forces, which in some cases have been infiltrated by the very militias they are supposed to be fighting. The slide notes that "ineffectual" Iraqi police forces have also been a significant problem, and cites sectarian conflicts between Iraqi security forces.

The US has shown signs of increasing impatience with the Iraqi security forces and the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, for failing to curb the sectarian violence. In a move that threatens to further strain his relations with the White House, Mr Maliki yesterday ordered a stop to joint US-Iraqi checkpoints around the Shia militant stronghold of Sadr city and other parts of Baghdad.

There are some bright spots in the Pentagon briefing which said "hostile rhetoric" by political and religious leaders had not increased. It also noted that Iraqi security forces were refusing less often to take orders from the central government and that there had been a drop in mass desertions. Iraq remains the dominant issue for voters and still favours the Democrats, a poll showed today, with less than a week to the midterm elections.

The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows president George Bush benefiting from a strong economy with 46% of voters approving his economic record and 48% disapproving, a big gain from 39% approval and 56% disapproval in June.

But the Iraq war continues to dog Mr Bush and the Republicans. Most voters (36%) say Iraq is the most important issue in the election and 52% want Democrats rather Republicans to control Congress compared to 37% in favour of the Republicans. The margin matches the widest ever recorded on this question in a Journal/NBC poll.

The survey of 1,010 registered voters conducted from October 28-30, does not take into account the vagaries of races for individual Senate seats or House districts and the Republicans still have several factors in their favour in the House. The Republicans can count on the power of incumbency, district boundaries drawn to favour them and an efficient get-out-the-vote machine. They could also benefit from the resurgence of "moral values" as an issue.

Republicans have sought to make political capital of last week's New Jersey supreme court decision that same-sex couples should enjoy the same rights and benefits in the state as heterosexual married couples. But the pivotal issue for voters remains Iraq.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian News and Media Limited 2006
I smell something burning, hope it's just my brains.
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   Fill my ears with silver
   Stick my legs in plaster
   Tell me lies about Vietnam.

domer

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Re: Iraq Chaos?
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2006, 01:41:30 PM »
In light of this, JS, which I tend to fully credit, what do we do going forward? Is there a realistic probability or even possibility that upon a US redeployment all out carnage will reign in a catastrophic culmination of the folly we have wrought? If that is a realistic possibility, do we have a duty to stay to prevent it? If we do stay for that reason, when and how  do we ever disengage? In asking these questions, echoing commentators, I assume that Iraqi democracy is dead and that the best we can hope for is some kind of brokered stability of a much more rigid sort. Pending that development (that hope), do we stay as a buffer (and butt) of a raging civil war?

_JS

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Re: Iraq Chaos?
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2006, 02:00:33 PM »
I think those are the very questions that need to be asked and answered, preferably without political grandstanding from any side.

If there is a civil war, what role do we play? Are we a neutral arbitrator for peace? Do we take sides and attempt to enforce rule?

Does staying in Iraq exacerbate the violence or limit it?

We seem to have some monumental questions to answer. I believe we need to do right by the Iraqi people. Whether we went in under the best of circumstances or not is a moot point now. And I don't think political sloganeering is helping either. I think there are serious problems and we need to know if we have the right solutions.
I smell something burning, hope it's just my brains.
They're only dropping peppermints and daisy-chains
   So stuff my nose with garlic
   Coat my eyes with butter
   Fill my ears with silver
   Stick my legs in plaster
   Tell me lies about Vietnam.

Mucho

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Re: Iraq Chaos?
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2006, 03:41:46 PM »
I thought this Graphic was more than illuminating:

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/11/01/world/01military_CA0ready.html