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THE MORNING BRIEF (IN FULL)
Solidifying Preferences for American Voters?
By JOSEPH SCHUMAN
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE
The snapshot nature of political polling places such results among the most ephemeral statistics, as demonstrated by the past year's once-dire primary prospects of John McCain and the all-but-inevitable nomination of Hillary Clinton. But with one debate and just 20 days left before Americans choose their next president, the numbers reflect solidifying preferences, and they do so in Barack Obama's favor.
The latest New York Times/CBS News poll indicates that if they were voting now, 53% of probable voters would select Mr. Obama, compared with 39% for Mr. McCain. According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain 50% to 41% among likely voters. And a set of new Quinnipiac University polls conducted with The Wall Street Journal and Washingtonpost.com in the large battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Colorado gives Mr. Obama solid leads in all four. Mr. Obama's lead in all four of those states -- including Colorado, which went with President Bush in 2004 -- is much stronger than in September, the Journal reports. A lot can happen in three weeks, but the numbers imply the bigger onus for change is on Mr. McCain.
The N.Y. Times/CBS poll suggests that in addition to the financial crisis playing to Democrats perceived advantage on economic issues, the past month's shift in sentiment toward Mr. Obama has been fueled by what the Times calls "the McCain campaign's recent angry tone and sharply personal attacks," which seem to have backfired just as Sen. Clinton's negative campaigning seemed to hurt her last-ditch primary effort in the spring. "Six in 10 voters surveyed said that Mr. McCain had spent more time attacking Mr. Obama than explaining what he would do as president," the Times says. "By about the same number, voters said Mr. Obama was spending more of his time explaining than attacking." Among voters whose opinions recently changed, the poll indicates growth in Mr. Obama's favorability ratings is twice as strong as any worsening trend, "and voters who said that their views of Mr. McCain had changed were three times more likely to say that they had worsened than to say they had improved," the Times adds.
The top reasons for a change of heart cited by poll respondents were Mr. McCain's attacks and his pick of Sarah Palin as a running mate -- though the N.Y. Times notes a vast majority of respondents' opinions about the two candidates hadn't changed recently. The L.A. Times poll indicates that independent voters now favor Mr. Obama by five percentage points, compared to a 15-point preference for Mr. McCain in September -- and it suggests greater voter confidence in Mr. Obama on economic issues is the key factor.
Such is the backdrop ahead of tonight's final debate in one of the longest presidential campaigns in American history. The economy -- long-suffered housing market woes, retirement portfolios whacked by trading turmoil, an ailing employment environment and a global credit crunch whose complex nature serves to fan financial anxiety -- is once again likely to dominate. The dynamic of the second McCain-Obama debate last week, a more aggressive Mr. McCain and a calmer Mr. Obama playing it safe, is likely to be repeated. And the details of their fresh new economic plans will probably get the most air time. A day after Mr. Obama announced his plan, Mr. McCain proposed what the Washington Post notes are "$52 billion in tax breaks that aim to encourage savings and provide relief to seniors and the unemployed," with lower taxes for seniors who withdraw from retirement accounts and a broader capacity for investors to write off their losses when they sell falling stocks. Mr. McCain would also lower capital-gains taxes over the next two years. And in a preview of tonight's fencing, Mr. Obama dismissed the effectiveness of lower capital-gains taxes at a time when fewer stock sales would generate gains. Mr. Obama, whose own $60 billion economic stimulus plan has similarities with Mr. McCain's, said he backs Mr. McCain's proposal to help seniors with their retirement accounts.
But voters' feel for the candidates always seems to play a bigger role than intellectual digestion of details in their proposed policies. And the N.Y. Times suggests the past two debates have given Mr. Obama a chance to do what a highly contested primary fight and his summer jaunt to the Middle East and Europe didn't: connect with voters. Unlike the veteran Washington figure Mr. McCain, "Mr. Obama entered these debates at once famous and unknown," the paper says. His very un-Anglo-Saxon name, the color of Mr. Obama's skin, his binational parentage and scores of false Internet rumors about his religion and past contributed to doubts about the Democratic nominee. And the Times says his recent success in the polls could come from the calm demeanor and command of policy minutia he has displayed during the first two debates. "He looks presidential," Alex Castellanos, a Republican consultant who has advised Mr. McCain at times in this campaign, tells the paper about Mr. Obama. "America is getting more comfortable seeing him in the ring. The more they see him, the more comfortable they've gotten."
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