Author Topic: Iran's Overture: Welcome or Not?  (Read 1177 times)

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domer

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Iran's Overture: Welcome or Not?
« on: November 20, 2006, 08:34:48 PM »
Iran, to my mind, is about to develop into a significant if not preeminent regional power, at least, and despite the bluster, there's very little we can do about it, short of cataclysm. I view it as most likely Iran will become nuclear armed. For that reason, its location, its revolutionary history, and its resourceful populace, it may well become the engine driving much of the Muslim world, adjusting for the Shi'ite/Sunni divide.

With this as a backdrop, Iran's invitation to Syria and Iraq to come to Tehran to discuss ending the violence in Iraq can be effectual if troubling to neocons. Peace at any price may not be a wise cry, but peace according to the ministrations of the Iranis may not come at too high a price.

The unknown is what type of a "superpower" with what type of ambitions Iran will evolve into. It is conceivable that, starved for respect, as it seems, the Muslim world may rally behind its new standard-bearer, finding respect a long time in coming, as they see it, and create a duality (but remember China) reminiscent of the Cold War. This COULD be a boon to peace, if not tension, in the world. With the advent of a legitimate Muslim champion, the playing field will have become more level, breeding in the Muslim competition with the West a new set of vested interests, which just may not tolerate the sort of abominable asymmetric warfare we have seen lately. With a revitalized Muslim world, while the chance for confrontation may increase, it is more probable that competition among civilizations will find salutary and productive avenues of expression. The bet, according to this scenario, is that the Iranis are not suicidal, and, because of that, not expansionist. Indeed, while I don't have anything but a passing familiarity, there is the chance that the more liberal elements of Irani society, not insubstantial, could exert internal pressures meliorating the beast many have come to fear.

A very real and substantial caveat to our willingness to accept this eventuality is the effect it might have, during the "adjustment phase," on the State of Israel. More on that later.

Plane

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Re: Iran's Overture: Welcome or Not?
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2006, 03:40:12 AM »
I think it interesting that you think Iran is starved for respect.

Will they become satisfied with the respect they get from being very well armed , or will the haveing of the wepons lead to the use of the wepons?

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: Iran's Overture: Welcome or Not?
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2006, 09:30:20 AM »
Iran is already a significant military presence. With 77,000,000 people, the US cannot invade without instituting a draft, and could not dominate Iran and impose any permanent pro-US government there, ever.

Mudinejahd has never said he wants to destroy Israel. He has said the obvious: the creation of Israel was a very, very bad idea, and punishes the Palestinians for the crimes of the Germans. He has also said that Palestine and Israel should be united into one state, with free elections by all the people who live there. What Americans hear daily, that he wishes to bomb Israel or push the Jews into the sea is Israeli propaganda, and bullsh*t.


The US needs to face up to the obvious: that Iran is a powerful Shiite state that will always share a border and a culture with Iraq, and the US will never share either a border or a culture with Iraq.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."