Bring It On: The Great Diplomatic Bungle?

[domer70]

Optimistically speaking, there COULD be an opportunity for all concerned parties as the endgame in Iraq begins. That will only be true if our diplomacy is better than our war planning and execution lately. With Bush going to Jordan to meet with al-Maliki, with Cheney just returned from meeting the Saudis, with Rice on her way to Egypt, with Talibani having met Ahaminejad, with the Baker Commission readying its expected lead idea of regional diplomacy, with some scurrying out of apparent desperation, with others pursuing an opening that we created, the time for diplomatic skill is at the fore. What do we hope to achieve from the present configuration, what is the best we can hope for under the present dynamics? And, pregnantly, are Bush and his administration up to it?

[Plane]

Can there be an appeal to the people to look out for their own best intrests and halt the insurgency by failing to hide it?


I don't think that Americans are intrinsicly smarter than Iriquis , the regular Iriqui might be able to understand as well as we do what sort of times he can expect if the US fails, if the elected government falls , if the war between factions and external elements cannot stop till all sides are exausted.

[Michael Tee]

With Bush going to Jordan to meet with al-Maliki, with Cheney just returned from meeting the Saudis, with Rice on her way to Egypt, with Talibani having met Ahaminejad, with the Baker Commission readying its

It's easy to see what the U.S. can offer Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, none of whom are causing much of a problem in Iraq.  Do what we tell you or we'll cut off your financial and/or military support.  But I don't see what any of these puppets can offer the boss that they haven't already handed over on a platter.

Maliki is in a squeeze, cut back the Shia militia and they'll cut off his vital parts.  Or just replace the guy as "Prime Puppet." 

Iran has powerful regional ambitions which it's not likely to give up at any price.  So what it can offer is necessarily limited and its price even for that would have to be very steep.  We are talking about the second-largest proven reserves in the world, which have to be of considerable value to the U.S. and the Iranians aren't exactly stupid.  I think the only way they could be forced out of playing their own hand in Iraq would be if they were convinced not only that the U.S. was going to back the Sunni Resistance AND that the Sunnis with U.S. backing had a reasonable chance of winning back the country.  I think the only realistic options open to U.S. diplomacy are either a Sunni-U.S. partnership leading to a new Sunni dictatorship, or an Iranian-U.S. partnership which could probably never keep the Sunnis pacified but would result in an undeclared Islamic Republic.  And a much stronger Iran. 

[Xavier_Onassis]

If Iran is smart, they won't try anything clever until the US has left the region. or at least pulled out most of its troops. Iran will always have a border with Iraq. Iran and Iraq will always have a Shiite majority, and they will always share the same shrines.

The US cannot do anything really evil to Iran, or Iran could easily cut off the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf by bombs or possibly just threats of bombs.

[Plane]

The US cannot do anything really evil to Iran, or Iran could easily cut off the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf by bombs or possibly just threats of bombs.



Hehehehe

And who would this hurt more than Iran?

Russia would make some really good money as the conduit of oil to Europe and the far East .

Haveing the threat of cutting off their own windpipe seems rather hollow.