Poll: Same-sex marriage ban not wooing voters
John Wildermuth, Chronicle Staff Writer
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Opponents of a ban on same-sex marriage have the upper hand in a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, but the numbers also suggest that the third time may be a charm for Proposition 4, which requires notification of a parent or relative before a minor can receive an abortion.
While voters are enthusiastically looking ahead to the November election, they're also convinced that the economy is a disaster, worried about California's financial future and angry at a state Legislature that was nearly three months late in approving a budget.
"You don't often see Democrats and Republicans in agreement on anything, but both agree we're going in the wrong direction and headed for bad economic times," said Mark Baldassare, president of the policy institute and its chief pollster.
The growing interest in the national campaign has spilled over into state contests, where voters already are taking positions on high-profile ballot measures.
Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, is in dire straits, with 55 percent of likely voters opposed and 41 percent in favor of the ban. Making it even tougher for the measure's supporters, only 4 percent of those surveyed were undecided.
"That 55 percent looks pretty strong," Baldassare said. "Now the supporters not only have to convince the undecided voters, but they also have to convince people who already have decided to vote no."But Prop. 4, a parental notification measure similar to initiatives beaten at the polls in 2005 and 2006, now holds a 48 to 41 percent lead among likely voters, with 11 percent undecided. While there's a strong party split, with Republicans in favor and Democrats opposed, the measure jumps party lines, with majority support among parents with children under 18 and Latinos, who typically support Democrats.
"This is very similar to what's happened in past years," said Steve Smith, consultant for the No on Prop. 8 campaign. The measure "sounds OK until you learn more about it, and we're going to help educate the voters about its problems."
Backers of the measure argue that the opponents will go on television and try to confuse voters about what the initiative will do.
"If we can keep people on the subject, which is, 'Should a parent or relative be notified before a minor has an abortion?' (the measure) will pass easily," said Albin Rhomberg, a spokesman for Prop. 4.
When it comes to Proposition 11, a redistricting measure that would take the power to redraw most political boundaries from the Legislature and give it to a multiparty commission, voters are still a long way from making a decision. While 38 percent of likely voters support the redistricting plan, 33 percent are against it and 29 percent remain undecided.
"Voters don't know what to make of it yet," Baldassare said. "People want to see the TV ads and see who's supporting it and why."
California remains Obama country, with 50 percent backing the Democratic senator from Illinois, compared to 40 percent supporting Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona. President Bush's approval rating continues to scrape bottom at 23 percent among all adults, with the Congress not much better at 29 percent.
Those numbers look good compared to the way voters view the state Legislature. Among likely voters, a record low of 16 percent approves of the job state lawmakers are doing, with 76 percent unhappy with the way they have done their work. Even more worrisome to those elected legislators is that 52 percent of likely voters also disapprove of the job their own lawmaker is doing.
"People are unhappy with the way things are going and the leadership," Baldassare said. "It's not just the Legislature, it's the legislators."
Not surprisingly, the economy is virtually the only concern for most voters, and they're taking an increasingly gloomy view of the future. Among all adults, 68 percent believe California is headed into rough economic waters in the next 12 months. Bay Area residents are even more pessimistic, with 70 percent worried about the future.
That same 68 percent of all adults is convinced things in California are going in the wrong direction, a number that includes 72 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans.
The poll is based on a telephone survey of 2,002 adult Californians, taken from Sept. 9 to Sept. 16. That number includes 1,467 registered voters and 1,157 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points for the overall survey, 2.5 percentage points for the registered voters, and 3 percentage points for the likely voters.
State poll results
Proposition 4: Parental notification (likely voters)
Yes: 48%
No: 41%
Don't know: 11%
Proposition 8: Same-sex marriage (likely voters)
Yes: 41%
No: 55%
Don't know: 4%
Economic outlook over next 12 months (all adults)
Good times: 20%
Bad times: 68%
Don't know: 12%
State's present direction (all adults)
Right direction: 21%
Wrong direction: 68%
Don't know: 11%
Source: Public Policy Institute of California
E-mail John Wildermuth at jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com.
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