Public Cheers Democratic Victory
Expectations As High As for GOP in 1994
Released: November 16, 2006
The Democrats' big win on Nov. 7 has gotten a highly favorable response from the public. In fact, initial reactions to the Democratic victory are as positive as they were to the GOP's electoral sweep of Congress a dozen years ago. Six-in-ten Americans say they are happy that the Democratic Party won control of Congress; in December 1994, roughly the same percentage (57%) expressed a positive opinion of the GOP's takeover.
Half of Americans approve of the Democrats' plans and policies for the future, which also is comparable to approval of the GOP's proposed agenda in 1994. However, there is one important area where the parallels to 1994 do not hold: By 51%-29%, more Americans want Democratic leaders  rather than President Bush  to take the lead in solving the nation's problems. Twelve years ago, the public was divided over whether GOP congressional leaders (43%), or President Clinton (39%), should take the lead in addressing national problems.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press  conducted Nov. 9-12 among 1,479 Americans  finds that Americans are optimistic that Democrats will actually get their proposals enacted. Roughly six-in-ten (59%) say Democratic leaders will be successful in getting their programs passed into law; again, this is on par with the confidence that Americans voiced about GOP legislative prospects in December 1994.
However, in the wake of a bitter midterm campaign, the public is dubious that the election will lead to increased bipartisanship on Capitol Hill. Just 29% think that relations between Republicans and Democrats will get better in the year ahead; 46% expect relations to remain the same; and 20% predict relations will get worse.
FigureIn this regard, Democrats are cool to the idea of their leaders cooperating with President Bush. About half of Democrats (51%) say party leaders should "stand up" to Bush on important issues, even if that means less gets done in Washington; 42% believe Democratic leaders should try to work with Bush, even if it means disappointing some Democratic supporters. By contrast, most Republicans (61%) want their party's leaders to try to work with Democratic leaders, while 30% believe GOP leaders should stand up to the Democrats.
Bush's own job approval ratings have hit a new low in the aftermath of the elections. Just 32% of Americans approve of Bush's job performance compared with 58% who disapprove. Bush's job rating stands at just 24% among political independents, who proved crucial to the Democrats' victory on Nov. 7. By 57%-39%, independent voters cast ballots for Democratic candidates, according to national exit polls. Two years ago, independent voters were more divided (50% Democrat/46% Republican). See "Centrists Deliver for Democrats," November 8, 2006).
FigureThe broad opposition to President Bush among independents is reflected in their strong preference that Democratic leaders, rather than the president, take the lead in solving the nation's problems. By more than two-to-one (53%-25%), independents believe that Democratic leaders should take the lead on issues. In the aftermath of the 1994 elections, independents  like the public generally  were divided over whether President Clinton or Republican leaders should have a leading role in dealing with issues.
The survey finds that public perceptions of the situation of Iraq have gone from bad to worse. Overall, 64% feel that the U.S. military effort in Iraq is not going well, up from 59% last month and the highest percentage since the war began. In terms of specific evaluations of the situation, increasing numbers say the U.S. is losing ground in training Iraqi security forces (up 11 points since August), reducing civilian casualties (nine points), and preventing terrorists from establishing a base in Iraq (nine points).
Obama Moves Up
FigureThough some of this year's congressional elections are not yet decided, attention is already beginning to shift to the 2008 presidential race. Sen. Barack Obama has emerged as the leading rival to Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party's nomination.
Among registered Democrats, Sen. Clinton continues to lead by a wide margin  39% of party voters back her, compared with 23% for Obama. But the margin narrows among independent voters; 27% say they would like to see Clinton win the Democratic nomination, while 21% favor Obama.
Among the Republican contenders, Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani both continue to attract broad support. Among registered Republicans, the two run neck-and-neck (27% for Giuliani, 26% for McCain), and both receive the support of roughly three-in-ten independents as well.
The lists of potential presidential nominees for both parties mostly consist of veteran politicians, but the public wants more people from different walks of life to compete for high political office. About six-in-ten Americans (57%) say they would like to see more non-politicians run for high office, compared with 33% who think it is important to have experienced politicians running for office. Comparable percentages of independents (59%), Democrats (59%) and Republicans (56%) say it would be good for political outsiders to run for high office.
Pelosi's Stature Growing
While most Americans still are unable to name a person who stands out in their minds as the leader of the Democratic Party these days, the proportion naming Rep. Nancy Pelosi has risen sharply following the 2006 midterm elections. Currently, 10% of Americans name Rep. Pelosi as the party's leader, up from just 1% in April. Only Hillary Clinton is cited more frequently, by 12% of respondents.
FigureThere is little party divide over perceptions of the Democratic leadership  Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi are mentioned most frequently by Republicans, Democrats and independents. But within the Democratic Party, liberals and conservatives take a somewhat different view. Among liberal Democrats, 14% cite Howard Dean as the party's leader, on par with the percentage who cite Clinton (14%) and Pelosi (13%). But just 2% of moderate and conservative Democrats name Dean, while 14% name Clinton and 9% name Pelosi. No other leader stands out in the minds of moderate and conservative Democrats; most are unable to name anyone as the party's leader these days.
Partisans Rate their Parties
FigureThroughout the Bush presidency, Republicans nationwide have expressed far more satisfaction than Democrats with their party's performance in standing up for its traditional positions. But over the past two years, Republicans have become increasingly frustrated with their party. As a result, for the first time in more than six years, as many Democrats as Republicans give their party good marks for standing up for its traditional positions (43% of Democrats/42% of Republicans).
More than half of Democrats (52%) still say the party has done only a fair (45%) or poor (7%) job in advocating such traditional Democratic positions as protecting the interests of minorities, helping the poor and needy, and representing working people. But there is greater dissatisfaction among Republicans: 41% say the party has done only a fair job, and 15% a poor job, of standing up for traditional GOP positions like reducing the size of government, cutting taxes, and promoting conservative social values.
The last time a majority of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic gave their party positive marks for standing up for traditional party positions was during the final months of the Clinton administration (63% in September 2000). During the past six years fewer than half of Democrats and Democratic leaners felt the party was performing well in this regard, reaching an all-time low of 33% in March 2005. Democratic ratings have recovered somewhat from that low point  today 43% say the party is performing well on its traditional agenda, up from just 34% this June.
FigureConservative Democrats are much more positive about how well the party has performed in advocating its traditional positions than are moderate and liberal Democrats. Nearly six-in-ten conservative Democrats (58%) say the party has done an excellent or good job in this regard, compared with 40% of moderate Democrats and 37% of liberal Democrats.
Among Republicans, conservatives are more satisfied with the party's stand on key principles than are moderates in the party. Half of conservative Republicans (50%) feel the party is doing an excellent or good job standing up for traditional party positions, compared with 28% of moderates.
The growth in Republican frustration with the party has also been most notable among older Republicans. Today, just 34% of Republicans age 50 and over say the party is performing well on its core positions, down from 48% as recently as this April. Among Democrats, there is no age divide in ratings of the party's performance in this area.
Iraq Top Election Issue
The war in Iraq dominated the news this fall and was the central issue in the campaigns of many Democratic candidates for Congress. Pre-election polling consistently found more voters picking Iraq as the top issue in the election. However, results from the national exit polls suggested that the issue of corruption and scandals in government was more important to voters than the war in Iraq.
FigureThe national exit poll, conducted by the National Election Pool, asked voters to indicate how important each of six issues were to their vote, using a scale that ranged from "extremely important" to "not at all important." Government corruption was mentioned by more voters as extremely important (42%) than terrorism or the economy (40%), "values issues such as same-sex marriage or abortion" (36%), or the war in Iraq (36%). When the "extremely" and "very" important categories are combined, Iraq still fell below several other issues in importance.
The exit poll showed that comparable numbers of voters rated several issues as extremely important. By contrast, when the Pew survey presented one group of voters with the same list of issues that appeared on the exit poll  and then asked "which one issue mattered most to you in deciding how you voted in the congressional election"  certain issues emerged as ranking much higher than others.
As was the case in pre-election surveys, Iraq was mentioned most often (by 30% as a first choice, and 53% as first or second choice), with the economy following at 20% (and 37% as a first or second choice). Values issues were close behind at 16% (and 27% as a first or second choice). Corruption was mentioned by only 10% as the top issue, though it did climb to 23% among first and second choices combined.
FigureAnother group of voters was asked to state in their own words what one issue mattered most in their vote; they were not presented with a list of issues. In this format responses were much more scattered, though again, Iraq topped this list with 17%. No other single issue was mentioned by more than 7% (the economy). Terrorism, which appeared more important than Iraq to voters in the exit poll questions, was mentioned as the top issue by only 1% of respondents.
Responses to the open-ended version of this question were much more dispersed than they were in 2004, when Pew also conducted a post-election experiment on the importance of issues in the vote. In the 2004 survey, 60% of respondents mentioned one of the top four issues that had been on the exit poll list that year (Iraq, moral values, the economy and jobs, and terrorism). This year, the top four issues in the open-ended format accounted for only 30% of the total. This difference may reflect the difference between a presidential election in which opinion is crystallized around two candidates and their positions on issues, and the widely scattered nature of the political campaigns waged in a legislative election.
Partisans Far Apart in Issue Priorities
FigureAs is often the case, Democratic and Republican voters have very different views of which issues were most important. Iraq was chosen as the top issue by four-in-ten of those who voted for Democratic candidates (and by 66% as first or second choice). In contrast, just 16% of Republican voters picked Iraq (37% as a first or second choice). The economy was also more frequently mentioned as a top issue by Democratic voters (25%) than by Republicans (17%). Values issues were the top choice of Republican voters (30%), compared with just 8% of Democrats. Corruption and scandals registered with Democrats (14% picked it first), but not with Republican voters (4%). Terrorism (16%) and illegal immigration (11%) were both more important to Republican voters than to Democrats (2% each).
There also are some notable demographic differences in issue priorities. Catholics were far more likely than Protestants to cite the economy as the top issue (29% for Catholics, 18% for Protestants). White evangelical Protestants were far more likely than other groups to mention values issues such as same-sex marriage or abortion (39% vs. 16% for all voters), a pattern similar to that seen in 2004. Illegal immigration was the second ranked issue among older men; 18% mentioned it as the top issue, compared with just 7% of all voters. Just 2% of voters in the West mentioned illegal immigration as the top issue. The economy was the most frequently mentioned issue in the Midwest, with 30% citing it first (compared with 26% citing Iraq).
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