Oct. 20, 2006, 8:53PM
Corruption issue causing problems for GOP as polls show state's Democrats gaining ground
Pendulum may swing in Ohio
By BENNETT ROTH
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle
ZANESVILLE, OHIO — The Muskingum County Democratic headquarters, once a lonely spot in a district represented by recently convicted GOP congressman Bob Ney, bustles with activity as volunteers come by looking for bumper stickers and yard signs.
A Democratic revival in Ohio is especially significant because this populous Rust Belt state long has been a bellwether for national political trends.
Political experts say the outcome of Ohio's House and Senate races could be crucial in determining which party controls the next Congress. Democrats need a net gain of 15 House and six Senate seats to take the majority in those chambers.
"Ohio is a window into the Republicans' national problems," said Stuart Rothenberg, an influential political analyst in Washington.
In 2004, Ohio voters nudged President Bush over the top in his re-election bid by galvanizing social conservatives who opposed gay marriage and other voters concerned about national security — and then utilized a powerful "ground game" to get to them to the polls.
Seats in jeopardy
But just two years later, the political hierarchy has been turned upside down.
In the open race for governor, polls show Democratic congressman Ted Strictland galloping ahead of GOP candidate Ken Blackwell, the current secretary of state, by double digits. U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine, a 12-year incumbent, is also trailing Democrat challenger Rep. Sherrod Brown. At least three, and possibly up to five, House seats currently held by Republicans could change hands, analysts said.
Ohio GOP officials and experts cited both national trends and more parochial concerns for the swing of the pendulum.
A state political scandal that has implicated outgoing GOP governor Bob Taft, coupled with the recent guilty plea by Ney on conspiracy charges and the resignation of Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., after disclosures that he sent sexually charged e-mails to high-school-age pages, have given potency to the "culture of corruption" theme pushed by Democrats.
Meanwhile, President Bush's approval ratings in Ohio have plummeted over concern about U.S. involvement in Iraq, causing a drag on GOP candidates across the state.
On top of all this, Ohio has lost 195,000 manufacturing jobs since 2001, and recent announcements of cutbacks by U.S. car manufacturers have caused fears that job losses could accelerate.
'Voters' anxiety'
"I have never seen voters' anxiety at this level — ever," said Joy Padgett, a state senator who was tapped by Republicans to run for the seat being vacated by Ney. The district stretches from outside Columbus to the Pennsylvania border and includes a swath of Appalachia. Her campaign office is in Zanesville, a city filled with boarded-up storefronts.
Recent polls show Padgett trailing Democrat Zack Space in a district comfortably won by Bush and Ney in the past. Democrats have sought to tie Padgett to Ney, noting that the convicted congressman said he wanted her to take his place in Washington.
Defending the party
Corruption is an issue that causes problems for the GOP on every political front in Ohio.
"Rather than being able to focus on their message, they are spending time defending the Republican Party and explaining the actions of other Republicans, whether you are talking about Bob Ney, or Bob Taft, or Mark Foley," said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio poll.
For example, Rep. Deborah Pryce, who represents most of Columbus and who ranks fourth in the House GOP leadership, was forced to respond to criticism that she didn't do enough to stop Foley because she once said in a magazine interview that he was one of her close friends in the House.
Pryce insisted her race against Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy won't be a referendum on national issues or Foley, but will focus on her ability to bring back funds to her district. Polls show that Pryce, a moderate who was first elected in 1992 and won with 60 percent of the vote in 2004, is now fighting for her political life.
While acknowledging the difficult task they face this year, Republicans are still banking on the effectiveness of their vaunted ground game.
"That machine is still there," said John McClelland, the spokesman for the state Republican Party. He said that party volunteers recently made 100,000 calls and knocked on 50,000 doors to urge supporters to vote.
Ohio Democratic Party spokesman Randy Borntrager said his party had made an equal number of calls and had improved its turnout operation by targeting voters even in GOP-leaning counties.
Republicans have sought to portray Democrats as tax-and-spend liberals. To inoculate himself against such charges, Zack Space portrays himself as a centrist who supports gun ownership and wants to crack down on illegal immigration.
Privately, some state Republicans say they have given up on the governor's race and fear that a huge loss there could pull down other candidates, including DeWine.
Some plan to defect
The gloom among Republicans was evident at recent reception of the Capital Area Republican Woman's Club in Columbus. Helen MacMurray, co-chair of the club, said during her recent canvassing of voters, both independents and Republicans told her they were tired of the corruption and were considering voting for Democrats this year.
"Dedicated Republican as I am," she said, "I can't blame people for being discouraged."
bennett.roth@chron.com
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/4276932.html
