Obama's Chess Game In Syria involving Iran, Russia, and China

[Christians4LessGvt]

Russia vetoes anti-Assad UN motion after
preparing Special Forces for Syria

DEBKAfile Special Report February 4, 2012, 7:51 PM (GMT+02:00)


Syrian shelling leaves hundreds dead in Homs

The West and Russia had a major showdown Saturday Feb. 5 over the Arab League resolution calling on Bashar Assad to step down and allow the formation of a national unity government. US President Barack Obama demanded a UN stand against the Syrian president's "relentless brutality" and a vote before the end of the day. It was put to the vote and defeated by Russian and China vetoes.

Moscow sources charged that the motion had been intended to pave the way for war in Iran and a bid to overthrow the Tehran regime.

debkafile's military sources report that the Russians backed their hard line against the West by putting SOBR Rapid Reaction Force (aka Spetsnaz) units in Black Sea bases on the ready to set out for Syria and defend Damascus. A Cold War dimension has been injected into the Syrian crisis, which is fast descending into a sectarian war between Syria's ruling Alawites (Shiites) and the majority Sunnis. The regional dimension is provided by pitting Iran and Syria against Turkey and the Gulf Arabs.

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's earlier announcement that he would visit Damascus next Tuesday, Feb 7, with Russian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Mikhail Fradkov was meant to buy Bashar Assad another three days' grace to polish off the opposition before a possible UN-ordered ceasefire.

However, the US and Western powers refused to wait for further Syrian excesses to take place after various sources reported earlier Saturday that Syrian troops had shelled  the Homs district of Khaldiyeh, killing an estimated 350 people there and injuring some 1,500, in the worst military bombardment of nearly 11-month-old uprising,.

Syrian government officials denied the charge accusing "gunmen" of killing civilians.

debkafile's intelligence sources note that Moscow's gesture to send the Russian foreign intelligence chief to Damascus alongside the foreign minister is supported additionally by the presence in the Syrian port of Tartus of Russia's only aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov with two destroyers and a marine force.

Aside from a few Turkish brigades strung out along the Syrian border, the West maintains no troops on in the vicinity of Syria since the American military withdrew from Iraq last December.

The United States presented a tough front at the UN Security Council Saturday, with President Obama insisting that the council vote on a Arab League text without further delay or changes to accommodate Moscow and that its president step down over his "unspeakable assault" on Homs.

The hard lines taken by Washington and Moscow over the Syrian crisis produced a harsh showdown over the "Arab Spring" per se, which Russian has been building up to since NATO helped Libyan rebels overthrow Muammar Qaddafi.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who runs for his third term as president in a month's time, and President Dmitry Medvedev appear to have determined, even at the price of military intervention, not to let NATO and Arab states repeat the Libyan exercise in Damascus. The gauntlet they threw down was picked up by President Obama Saturday. If the Russians continue to obstruct the US, European and Arab role in backing the Arab revolt and the Muslim Brotherhood, The United States, the Europeans and the Gulf Arabs are likely to redouble their efforts to unseat Bashar Assad.

http://www.debka.com/article/21710/

[Xavier_Onassis]

For Russia and China to approve of bringing Assad down, it must be perceived as being to Russia's and China's advantage.

Russia shares a border and the coast of the Caspian Sea with Iran and a pro-American Iran would be against Russian interests. China wants a stable and dependable source of petroleum from Iran.

The US needs to convince Russia and China that removal of Assad would be in their interests. I do not see how this could be possible.

A more democratic Syria and Iraq could mean a more anti-Russian Iran.

[Plane]

For Russia and China to approve of bringing Assad down, it must be perceived as being to Russia's and China's advantage.

Russia shares a border and the coast of the Caspian Sea with Iran and a pro-American Iran would be against Russian interests. China wants a stable and dependable source of petroleum from Iran.

The US needs to convince Russia and China that removal of Assad would be in their interests. I do not see how this could be possible.

A more democratic Syria and Iraq could mean a more anti-Russian Iran.

Russians seem to have an inertia of thought.
A pro American Iran would be better for Russia than the present pro Chechen Iran.
I don't think that there is any serious American effort contrary to Russian intrests, certainly none that require a freindly Iran.
But lots of Russian leaders are useing their cold war upbringing to fill the gaps in their thinking.

[Christians4LessGvt]

Plane I am not 100% grounded on where I stand on Syria.
but just throwing out ideas/possibilities...thinking out loud

Russia (like me) could be concerned about Obama replacing
dictators with Islamist across the Middle East.

Sure dictators are bad, but something
worse can also replace a dictator.

Just look at Iran. Sure the Shah is gone
but now we have basically dictators in charge
in Iran that are trying to get nukes built to point
at us. Sometimes it boils down to "would you rather
have a dicator that doesnt point nukes at you or
one that does?".

We have no idea what Libya and Egypt will emerge with
as far as who will be runnin the country. I seriously doubt
it's gonna be democratic and they all live happliy ever after.

I think Obama's vision in a nut-shell is..."it is dangerous
to have these dictators in charge across the Middle East
so lets throw them out and replace them with Muslim
Brotherhood types that we asssume are much less
dangerous than radical Islamist one day taking over
these countries".

It's Obama's gamble and just maybe Russia
and China aren't buying it.

[Xavier_Onassis]

The nasty little Shah was also a dictator. He was just a dictatorial American satrap, and now what we have are Shia fanatics running the show.

Iran is in serious economic trouble. The rial has recently plummeted from 13,000 to 18,000 to the dollar. This will cause serious damage to the budgets of Iranian citizens when imports have to be restocked.

www.dawn.com/2012/01/28/iran-to-enforce-single-exchange-rate.html

Syria will be better off without Assad.

It is absurd to think that Russia or China would want to throw Assad out if it would later result in a pro-American regime in Iran on their border.

I hardly think that President Obama wants to install the Muslim Brotherhood anywhere. That would not make much sense.

[Christians4LessGvt]

Assad sends hit squads after top Lebanese officials

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

February 5, 2012, 6:16 PM (GMT+02:00)


Heads of Lebanese Internal Security Maj.-Gen. Ashraf Rifi, Col. Wissam al-Hassan

Syrian President Bashar Assad has hired hit squads to kill top Lebanese government, intelligence and security officials whom he suspects of helping insurrectionists and Saudi and Qatari agents smuggle fighters and weapons into the country to fight his regime. One Lebanese hit squad is reported by debkafile's counter-terror sources as having been captured in the third week of January by Lebanese security police. Its members confessed to receiving, cash, arms, explosives and a list of targets from Syrian Military intelligence, with precise instructions on the method of assassination for two targets, Director General of Lebanese Internal Security Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi and his deputy, Col. Wissam al-Hassan, head of its Information Branch.

The team was instructed to rig two bomb cars, each loaded with one ton of explosives to be detonated remotely. They were told which cars would be driving by different routes  to a secret meeting of all Lebanese intelligence arms at Internal Security headquarters in the Christian Ashrafieh district of Beirut. Two narrow side streets would bring them close to their destination and it was there that the bomb cars would be planted.

This was exactly the same method used to assassinate the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Harirri in February 2005.

However, shortly before they set out for the staff meeting, a foreign clandestine agency warned the two Lebanese officers of the death trap awaiting them. The information, according to our sources, also covered the location of the bomb cars and the whereabouts of the hit team.

Saturday, Jan. 28, Gen. Rifi and Col. Al-Hassan attended a news conference at which Rifi revealed a plot to murder his deputy, without disclosing the identity of its instigator or that he himself had been targeted.

debkafile's sources in Beirut explain that he did not dare name the source of the plot or the results of his investigation because people in Lebanon live in extreme dread of the Assad regime's long arm and its propensities for violence.
But top Lebanese figures are now taking extra security measures to protect themselves and their families from ongoing Syrian assassination conspiracies.

And indeed, Friday, Feb. 3, Gen. Rifi warned Lebanese lawmaker Sami Gemayel, one of the leaders of the Christian Phalange Party, two of whose forbears, Pierre and Amin, were assassinated, to take care because murderers were after him at his home town of Ain Safsaf in the Mattan Mountains.
The Lebanese intelligence chief did not dare reveal

http://www.debka.com/article/21712/