If the Chinese continue as they have for the past 50 years they will surpass us, of course. It's inevitable. For one thing they surely have as high a percentage of innately gifted people as we have. In fact if you believe the IQ statistics based on race the Chinese most likely have a higher percentage of gifted people then we do. Now, in China's case, that percentage is going into over a billion people. In our case a common percentage would be going into over 300 million people. Right there you have a big advantage going China's way. But, to really take advantage of that, China has to have its own MIT, Harvard, and so forth. When that comes to pass, game, set, match, China.
There is one caveat for all concerned though. If the world continues to shrink as it has, and it will, it will become so homogenized that eventually it won't matter whether you're Chinese, Columbian, or South African. That will be a great day.
BSB