http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/brent_larkin/index.ssf?/base/opinion/1162114226152530.xml&coll=2Waning DeWine is getting waxed
Sunday, October 29, 2006
Brent Larkin
Plain Dealer Columnist
Nearly a year ago, a large daily newspaper based in Cleveland ran an editorial suggesting that, given the unimpressive start to his campaign for the U.S. Senate, Sherrod Brown's political skills might be eroding.
At the time, such speculation seemed to make some sense. After all, Brown's handling of the brief challenge from fellow Democrat Paul Hackett was anything but graceful. Then, in early November 2005, Brown's staff fell on its sword for him over a letter to Sen. Mike DeWine that contained language plagiarized from an Internet blogger.
It was these lapses that prompted the newspaper to wonder if Brown "has let his campaign skills get out of shape."
Well, the wondering is over. Those little stumbles we wrote about in 2005 don't mean a thing a year later.
What matters now is that Sherrod Brown has had pretty much a politically perfect 2006. Not only has Brown led DeWine in the polls for more than a month now, but DeWine is still nowhere near 50 percent in any of those surveys. For a 12-year incumbent, that's an ominous, usually fatal, sign.
DeWine clearly knows he's about cooked. Some of his comments at Friday's City Club debate smacked of desperation.
Memo to Mike: Sure it's frustrating to run against a candidate who will say virtually anything that might benefit him politically. But members of your party have been doing the same thing for years. Plus, it's pathetic for a sitting U.S. senator to allege that in the 1980s, an employee of Sherrod Brown may have eaten a banana laced with marijuana. If you're going down, go down with some class. Don't go down the Ken Blackwell way.
At the top of any list of why DeWine is likely to lose is the political climate. Largely because of President Bush and his catastrophic adventure in Iraq, the climate is bad for Republicans everywhere. In Ohio, it's far worse because of the state's lagging economy, all of the serious scandals impacting Republican officeholders, and a wildly unpopular Republican governor.
But to attribute all of DeWine's underdog status to the political climate gives Brown's considerable political skills short shrift. The fact is, Brown is a superior politician who has run a far better campaign.
When DeWine first went negative against Brown in television commercials in July, he did so with a doctored ad that used fake footage of the burning World Trade Center towers. Brown pounced on this incredibly foolish mistake with ads of his own.
Since then, Brown repeatedly has trounced DeWine in the ad war. In terms of effectiveness, Brown's ads grade out at a solid "A," while "C+" would be a generous mark for DeWine's.
DeWine has been a very effective senator for this state. Effectiveness and power rankings released last week by the nonpartisan Congress.org ranked DeWine 25th out of the 100 senators in those two categories, far ahead of Sen. George Voinovich, who was ranked 62nd.
But in winning two elections to the Senate, the fact is DeWine has never been in a close race. In 1994 - a year when the political climate favored Republicans in a huge way - he beat Democrat Joel Hyatt, who ran a poor campaign. Six years later, DeWine swamped Democrat Ted Celeste, who was little more than a token opponent.
So, this is the first Senate election in which DeWine has run against a Democratic opponent with formidable political skills - and it shows.
Brown can be extraordinarily engaging. But he's also got thin skin and is often quick to question the motives of anyone who dares to disagree with him. Brown is rarely wrong. Just ask him.
Those traits might pose significant problems for Brown in the Senate, but he didn't become the youngest person ever to serve in the Ohio General Assembly by being stupid. And he didn't win a race for Congress in a district he had never lived within 80 miles of - and then hold that district for six more terms - by being a political pushover.
Lots of people never gave Brown much of a shot in this race. Now it looks as if he's nine days away from proving them wrong.
Larkin is director of The Plain Dealer's editorial pages.
