<<I am not betting.>>
Of course not. I was using "hedging the bet" as a metaphor to indicate that you weren't committed to either possibility while I was favouring the possibility of the administration's story just being one more lie to justify one more aggression. Bad metaphor, I guess, because even a hedged bet is still a bet, which is different from any kind of commitment, however loose, to one side. Sloppy phrasing. Sorry that I inadvertently misrepresented your position.