$100 Oil By Monday (Read: The Lebanon Crisis)November 22, 2007
Here is an update on a global pressure point that could shove markets through $100 oil this weekend.
All news and information in this article was drawn from publicly available sources.
Since 2004, Lebanon has been embroiled internally and externally in a political process to either end or extend Syrian
dominance and Hezbollah's stranglehold, (at behest of Syria and Iran), on the Lebanese democratic and political future.
This coming Friday, the current Lebanese President, Emile Lahoud, will end his term in office. He is pro-Syrian, placed in office by Syrian-enforced changes to Lebanon's constitution to enable him to be elected for an additional three year term in 2004. To take his place, a new president must be elected by Lebanon's Parliament, the majority of which is politically, anti-Syrian. (The Iranian and Syrian foreign ministers rejected a potential candidate list on Monday.)
Basically, the Syrians and Hezbollah have been holding Lebanon's government hostage, when they weren't assassinating them the past three years. Most of the Lebanon Parliament majority are holed up in a Beirut hotel to avoid the fate of Rafik Hariri.
The problem...there is no replacement. The Lebanese Parliament elects the President. The Parliament has an anti-Syrian majority. The Parliament speaker is pro-Syrian. Syria, Iran and Hezbollah refuse to allow an anti-Syrian President take office. There is no compromise candidate that is publicly known.
The diplomatic activity by many countries, between Western and Lebanese parties to get a "workable" compromise has been incredible.
Quite simply, Lebanon is the proxy collision point between US/French/EU and Iranian/Syrian/and Russian interests and the Iranian nuclear weapons program. For Syria and Iran, if they "lose ground" in Lebanon with the government becoming anti-Syrian or lose Hizbollah's influence and ability to unilaterally "declare war" on Israel as it did in 2006, then the US/France/EU are more able to counter Iran's aims to complete its nuclear weapons program, end its interference in Iraq and Afghanistan, and to push for a more "successful" conclusion to US efforts in Iraq.
Or, as U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon warned in an informal meeting of the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday, "should the parties fail to reach agreement by 24 November, there is a real possibility of a confrontation," in Lebanon. What he didn't clarify is who was going to confront who, or where and when.
In regard to a confrontation, "many" Lebanese are aware that Lebanon is being used by Syria and Iran to "confront" the US, or from another perspective Hizbollah and Syria are able to derail Western influence in Lebanon, while Iran gets nukes and builds bigger missiles.
Unresolved continuation of the situation reduces US/EU military resources and diplomatic pressure versus Iran's nuclear weapons program/Iraq/Afghanistan, etc. And of course non-resolution, or even better, a pro-Syrian/Iranian president of Lebanon cripples the anti-Syrian majority government from effectively managing the country, unable to improve services or rebuild the country after last year's war.
Key to all of this is Hezbollah's ability to flaunt its "military" strength in the face of the Lebanese Army, and be Syria and Iran's "muscle" to bring a "favorable" pro-Syrian outcome to the presidential election impasse on Friday.
However, the Lebanese Army is a rush priority for the US military who has dumped almost 300 armored Humvees into Lebanon's armed forces, and is working on transferring of US jet fighters and helicopters to rebuild the Lebanese Air Force, etc. This doesn't include ammunition, potentially training of various Lebanese army units in other countries outside Lebanon, etc. Now one could easily argue this is not enough to keep Hezbollah from "interfering," in Lebanon's presidential election, even if you toss in UNFIL, who has no "mandate" to assist/intervene in Lebanon's "internal affairs."
Perhaps the extra muscle to encourage a "fair result" sits about 100-200 miles off Lebanon's coast.
The US Sixth fleet deployment on station possibly includes the following:
The Truman Carrier Strike Group which consists of:
aircraft carrier, USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75),
guided missile cruisers USS San Jacinto (CG 56) and USS Hue City (CG 66);
guided missile destroyers USS Carney (DDG 64), USS Oscar Austin (DDG 79) and USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81);
attack submarine USS Montpelier (SSN 765);
fast combat support ship USNS Arctic (T-AOE
;
the Canadian frigate HMCS Charlottetown (FFG 339); and
the British destroyer HMS Manchester (D 95).
Carrier Air Wing Three (CVW-3) consists of Strike Fighter Squadrons VFA-11, VFA-32, VFA-37 and VFA-105; (likely F/A 18F Super Hornets)
Tactical Electronics Warfare Squadron VAQ-130;
Carrier Airborne Early Warning Squadron VAW-126; and
Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron HS-7.
Also, there is likely a US Marine Expeditionary Unit [MEU] in the Med. Perhaps one like the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit which has about 2,200 US Marines, many with combat experience in Iraq, and Afghanistan, and is Special Operations Capable [SOC]. Currently it includes:
US Marines Kearsarge Strike Group which consists of:
USS Kearsarge (LHD 3), a helicopter carrier with Harrier's for close air support.
USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44), an amphibious landing ship
USS Ponce (LPD 15), an amphibious landing ship
USS Carr (FFG 52), frigate
USS Porter (DDG 78), guided missile destroyer
USS Vicksburg (CG 69), guided missile cruiser and
USS Miami (SSN 755), attack submarine.
Also, during the 2006 Israeli-Hizbollah war, France signed a strategic defense agreement with Cyprus to support operations in Lebanon. They get use of Cyprus' military airbase and perhaps its ports to support French military and UNFIL operations in Lebanon. For Cyprus, the French strategic defense agreement was a counter weight to Turkey's military power. However, France's interests, and the EU's, is a Lebanon with a new anti-Syrian/Iranian President. Cyprus, as an EU country will honor its treaty obligations. How much you want to bet there is a French naval taskforce off Lebanon's coast and fighter aircraft allocated to use the Cypriot airbase, "if needed"?
The British military bases in Cyprus.... I bet they have lots of "visitors" too.
All those Israeli recon flights over Lebanon that the Lebanese Army and government holler about and sometimes shoot at? They provided intel for potential US/French operations in support of the Lebanese Army if "asked." This is another wrinkle -- US military support for the Lebanese Army.
US ambassador to Lebanon, Jeffrey Feltman, said back in August: "Our partnership includes the commitment of the United States to provide the (Lebanese armed forces) with the supplies they need to battle -- and conquer -- the armed extremists in the north." This was in reference to the Nahr el Bared battle between the Lebanese army and Fatah al Islam terrorists that lasted 105 days and ended in army victory. However, Feltman added: "We are supplying the Lebanese Armed Forces with the equipment, armament, and training necessary to protect Lebanon and the Lebanese people from threats foreign and domestic".
Now why would the US equip the Lebanese Army with M-16s, Humvees, and other US equipment? For operational compatibility. The same reason why Hezbollah has been equipped to work in conjunction with the Syrian military and with Iranian weapons -- and of course Russian arms as well. The latest Russian anti-tank missiles were used against Israeli armor in 2006.
Now you have a more informed idea of
how big the confrontation might be if Hezbollah or any Palestinian group decide to mess up the Lebanese political process or challenge the Lebanese Army. Or create an "incident" to derail Annapolis and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Conference.
Lebanon could get very tragically interesting come Friday, and even more so early next week if the impasse lingers.
Am I serious? President Bush's January 2007 comments answer that question: "I am deeply disappointed by the recent violence and bloodshed on the streets of Lebanon," Bush said in a written statement. "Syria, Iran and Hezbollah are working to destabilize Lebanese society," he added. "Their goals are clear." "They foment violence in order to prevent the establishment of a special tribunal in response to former Prime Minister Hariri's assassination, to prevent full implementation of U.N. Security Council resolutions calling for Hezbollah's disarmament and to bring down Lebanon's democratically elected government." "Those responsible for creating chaos (in Lebanon) must be called to account."
Time to buy more oil ETFs -- $100 oil on Monday seems a pretty sure thing, given Lebanon's election crisis.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/55115-100-oil-by-monday-read-the-lebanon-crisis?source=d_email
