Israel Calls Hezbollah's Bluff

[Christians4LessGvt]

Israel Calls Hezbollah's Bluff

Has Hezbollah fallen into an Israeli trap? The details are still emerging, but it appears that several high-profile members of Hezbollah and Iran's Revolutionary Guard are dead after an Israeli strike near the Golan Heights. From a Reuters report:

An Israeli helicopter strike in Syria killed a commander from Lebanon's Hezbollah and the son of the group's late military leader Imad Moughniyah, sources close to Hezbollah said, in a major blow that could lead to reprisal attacks.

The strike hit a convoy carrying Jihad Moughniyah and other Hezbollah members including commander Abu Issa, in the Syrian province of Quneitra, near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, Lebanese sources said, killing five Hezbollah members in all.

It comes just days after Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said frequent Israeli strikes in Syria were a major aggression, that the group was stronger than before and that Syria and its allies had the right to respond.

Iran's semi-official Tabnak news site said several of its Revolutionary Guards had also been killed in the attack, without giving further details. State-run Iranian television said the identity of the "martyrs" could not be confirmed.

Hezbollah's high command may already be regretting those threats. By striking the Hezbollah convoy, and the strike apparently resulted in the death of some very important Hezbollah and possibly also Iranian personnel, Israel is calling Hezbollah's bluff.

Spread thin in Syria, and with all its combat energy focused on propping up Assad, Hezbollah is probably not ready to take on the Israelis in a big way. But if Hezbollah follows through with its threats and responds to the Israeli attack with a counterattack, the inevitable devastating Israeli response will degrade Hezbollah's war making capacity and quite possibly tilt the battle in Syria against the Shia.

This development would be greatly welcomed by the Sunni powers in the Gulf and beyond. They desperately want to see Assad defeated and Hezbollah checked, but they lack the military means to do it themselves.

Meanwhile, at a time when many of the Sunni countries in the Middle East are toning down criticism of Israel, feeling that they need Israel to help balance the scales against a surging Iran, both Hezbollah and Iran have been stepping up their anti-Israel rhetoric. For the minority Shi?a, that rhetoric is a way to build their legitimacy and soft power in the Sunni Arab world. They aren't heretics out to destroy the Sunni world, they claim; they are good Muslims leading the resistance front against the hated infidels and Jews.

The Israeli strike leaves Iran with nothing but ugly choices. The war in Syria is turning into a war of attrition, and the combination of sanctions and a collapsing oil price make it harder for Iran to keep propping up its clients. Serious hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel would likely change the balance of power in Syria, further undercutting Assad, and inflicting damage on Hezbollah that Iran will be hard put to make good.

On the other hand, if Hezbollah meekly turns the other cheek against a very high profile Israeli attack on its senior leadership, its weakness will be advertised,  and its reputation as a hardline opponent of Israel will be tarnished. Moreover, Hezbollah's support for the murderous Assad is hugely unpopular among Sunni Arabs. If it is clear that Hezbollah is devoting its military might against Sunnis rather than taking on Israel, Hezbollah will be seen less as a courageous fighter against the Zionists than as an opportunistic pawn of the Persian heretics.

For Israel's Netanyahu, it all looks good. If Hezbollah backs down, Netanyahu will have scored significant military and political victories against a wily opponent. If Hezbollah retaliates, Netanyahu will have plenty of opportunities to hit Hezbollah where it hurts. The terrorist organization is committed to a whole series of deployments in Syria, making it much more vulnerable to air power and offering Israel a rich choice of targets.

It?s hard to see why the Israelis would let Hezbollah off the hook. Striking effectively against Hezbollah will strengthen the tacit Israel-Sunni alliance that is the most dramatic development in Middle Eastern politics these days. If Hezbollah retaliates, Netanyahu is likely to punch back hard. If it doesn't retaliate, he may well look for more opportunities to hit Hezbollah where it hurts. With fighters roaming across southern Syria, and with Israeli intelligence apparently in good shape, this may not be the last chance the Israelis will have for high profile strikes. Then Hezbollah will have to choose again: retaliate and launch a wider war, or grit its teeth and carry on.

Israeli elections are scheduled for March 17; Netanyahu has a strong hand. Expect him to play it for all it is worth.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/01/18/israel-calls-hezbollahs-bluff/

[Xavier_Onassis]

Netanyahu is very, very cagey. I imagine that he solicited his invite from Boehner. Hezbollah is a bunch of fanatics that serve no useful purpose: clobbering them seems to be a wise move with no downside. Since they are fanatics, they did not see how this would play out.

[Plane]

I imagine that he solicited his invite from Boehner.

Why would he do that?

   Do Israelis vote based on what is good for the USA?

     I think he is already ahead and this trip won't hurt him, but American Jews  are not a solid Republican voting block, are they?

[Xavier_Onassis]

Many Israelis vote on how much Netanyahu can bag from the stupid Americans.

Israel is a beggar nation, and the US is the sucker. 

It is not about American Jews voting. It is about giving our President a hard time: he can't stand Bibi and has to meet with his sorry ass every time he comes a-begging. It is about the super bazillionaire Zionist Jewish donors more than anything, like Moskovitz the taxi baron and that Macao casino clown that kept the Newtster in the primary for all that time, even when he has virtually no other followers.

As a group, a majority of Jews vote for Democrats. But the super rich Zionist fanatics and the Hassids vote Republican.

[Plane]

As a group, a majority of Jews vote for Democrats. But the super rich Zionist fanatics and the Hassids vote Republican.

Why do any of them vote for Democrats?

That is a puzzle to me, I guess it is inertia.

[Xavier_Onassis]

It is their basic sense of fairness.  There was a time when the Klan lynched Jews as well as Blacks. Now the grandchildren of those Klansmen are all Republicans. Israel is not the main issue for most American Jews, although AIPAC wants you to believe it is..

[Plane]

The Klan was wrong to think that politics is mostly genetic.

You are too.

[Xavier_Onassis]

I do not believe that politics is "mostly genetic".

[Plane]

I do not believe that politics is "mostly genetic".

Now the grandchildren of those Klansmen are all Republicans.

  Oh , did you mean to say what a contrast and irony it is that most of the grandchildren of the Klan have joined the Klan's oldest enemy the Republican party?

   Well I feel sheepish for getting that backwards.

[Xavier_Onassis]

The Klan is essentially defunct as a political organization. Overt racism and scaring the shit out of the darkies no longer works, anyway.

The grandchildren of those Klansmen, however, vote Republican, and elect fools who jabber about "sealing the border with Mexico" and  voting to annul the Voting Rights Act.

Any fool can see this.

[Plane]

 Yes , the Republicans threw over every tradition they ever had , and the Democrats all converted to goodness , tossing off their entire heritage on March 3,1962, the process required three whole hours.

People that say this stuff , what were they paying attention to at the time?

[Xavier_Onassis]

There was no conversion: the old Dixiecrats liked the "Southern Strategy" of  Nixon and Reagan. Many of them voted for George Wallace, first in the Demo. primaries, then as an independent candidate. Poor Wallace met a gun fancier and spent the rest of his life in a wheelchair.

And Reagan went to Philadelphia Mississippi to tell the Kluxers that they would not be prosecuted, and as long as he was in office, they weren't.

Those who had been Southern Democrats became Southern Republicans. When they died off, their unrebellious children were all Republicans. 

The membership of both parties changed. Everyone should know what happened. It is hardly any sort of secret.

[Plane]

And Reagan went to Philadelphia Mississippi to tell the Kluxers that they would not be prosecuted, and as long as he was in office, they weren't.

   It seems like a secret that the kkk got prosecuted as much while Reagan was president as any time before or since.

   It seems like a secret that the Democrats ran the statehouses of the South for another twenty years and didn't loose that hold till the late eightys and ninetys.

     I wonder what you would not believe about Reagan , seems as if you would believe any unlikely thing , as long as it was negative.

[Xavier_Onassis]

It is not a secret what Reagan did.

He was simply awful.

He fooled more of the people more of the time than any politician before or since.