Class War and Other Predictions

[Michael Tee]

Here's a very densely-written and lengthy article (but nicely separated into numbered paragraphs) from the World Socialist Web Site, the voice of the ICFI (the International Committee of the Fourth International.)

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/jan2008/rept-j11.shtml#top

Lots of informed analysis and scary predictions, including:

a million Americans forced out of their homes in the next two years
indefinite, long-term U.S. occupation of Iraq
the euro or a "basket" of currencies replacing the U.S. dollar as the international reserve currency
abandonment of the Republocrats by the working class as the U.S. financial crisis deepens
class war out of the closet as the battle lines become more clearly drawn
more openly fascist U.S. government measures, ostensibly to "combat terrorism"
great analysis of the significance of the Democrats' failure to contest the stolen election of 2000
armed conflict with China in S.E. Asia if the U.S. continues to assert hegemony there
continuing and accelerating decline of U.S. power and influence
possible U.S. effort to destroy China as a world power before it gains more strength

Jeeziz, and I thought the Republicans were the Chicken Little crowd! 

[Rich]

There seems to be a theme here.

 

[Lanya]

What a mess.   
I like the WSWS, good news source.

[Plane]

"the euro or a "basket" of currencies replacing the U.S. dollar as the international reserve currency"


Would this really be bad news for anyone?


IN the view of the World Socialist Web Site is it good news?


The American economy grew rapidly during the eras that the Spanish currency was preemminent , French or English currency being the most spent in the world didn't harm us either.

The Chineese economy has not been harmed by the preeminence of the dollar during the past three decades , since they have been co-operateing with the dollar it has been kind to them, if the Euro is breifly the currency of business it is likely to be the Yuan that replaces it on top quite soon.

And if so ,who will be harmed?

Was Europe harmed when the Dollar became the most popular?

Let it happen , this is harmless.

[Plane]

5. A crisis of the US economy has direct and immediate global implications. The International Monetary Fund warns that ?risks to domestic demand in western Europe and Japan have now shifted to the downside? as a result of the ?contagion? emanating from the United States. (World Economic Outlook, October 2007, p. 11) Also, the IMF anticipates that ?continuing turbulence in global financial markets could disrupt financial flows to emerging markets and trigger problems in domestic markets... [G]rowth [in Asia and Latin America] would be vulnerable to spillover effects from slower aggregate demand growth in the advanced economies...? [ibid., p. 19]




Well that is true, the are all dependant on us , and if we trip we are hauling a lot of freinds down as we fall.

And there arn't any exeptions , consider Cuba which has done what it can already to become independant of the US and which the US has tried to isolate , Cuba depends on Dollars sent home by expatriot Cubans to an rediculous extent , a bad US unemployment problem would make even the very seaprated Cuba miserable.


I remember a movie sciene in which a group of kids exploreing a cave had roped themselves together , a little boy slipped and tumbled twards the edge of a great cliff , saved by the rope he was hauled back up . Then the fat kid observed that he had better not trip because there was not enough mass in the group to stop his fall.

[Michael Tee]

I think it's childish to observe that a collapse in the U.S. economy would bring pain to others as well.  The person most affected by the crash is the victim.  The damage to its neighbours and trading partners is collateral. 

The U.S. is much more dependent on its imports than on its exports.   Obviously, because that's why you have such a negative balance of payments.  A collapse in your dollar means you can't even buy the imports you want, or the imports you need for your export industry to function.  How is a factory in the Midwest going to ship its product to either coast for export if it can't afford the fuel?   So a collapsing dollar not only negatively impacts your standard of living, it hits your export markets too.  This is especially unfortunate if, because of your arrogant and aggressive foreign policy, there is a substantial drop in demand for your products anyway.

If the U.S. dollar ceases to be the international reserve currency (which now seems to be inevitable) you can't just shrug it off with references to the economy of the U.S.A. in the 18th century.  That's just not going to fly.  You will see immediate repercussions as the demand for dollars diminishes, because every euro, every yen, every yuan that you have to buy will cost more and more.

Unfortunately, about the only country that your collapse is likely to bring down is Canada.  If you're fucked, we're fucked.  Unless maybe there is some deal we can work out with China.  Hmmm.  Anyone know where I can find a Mandarin-language course around here?

[Plane]

I think it's childish to observe that a collapse in the U.S. economy would bring pain to others as well.  The person most affected by the crash is the victim.  The damage to its neighbours and trading partners is collateral. 

The U.S. is much more dependent on its imports than on its exports.   Obviously, because that's why you have such a negative balance of payments.  A collapse in your dollar means you can't even buy the imports you want, or the imports you need for your export industry to function.  How is a factory in the Midwest going to ship its product to either coast for export if it can't afford the fuel?   So a collapsing dollar not only negatively impacts your standard of living, it hits your export markets too.  This is especially unfortunate if, because of your arrogant and aggressive foreign policy, there is a substantial drop in demand for your products anyway.

If the U.S. dollar ceases to be the international reserve currency (which now seems to be inevitable) you can't just shrug it off with references to the economy of the U.S.A. in the 18th century.  That's just not going to fly.  You will see immediate repercussions as the demand for dollars diminishes, because every euro, every yen, every yuan that you have to buy will cost more and more.

Unfortunately, about the only country that your collapse is likely to bring down is Canada.  If you're fucked, we're fucked.  Unless maybe there is some deal we can work out with China.  Hmmm.  Anyone know where I can find a Mandarin-language course around here?

You seem to have it all bacwards.

In what way did the rise o the Dollar harm China? Europe? Anyone?

What the US is exporting right now is dollars , whch collect in overseas accounts and harm their owners when they fall , but Americans dealing with other Americans will continue to use dollars and will buy American made products when imports are too expensive.

A Strong dollar helped to build Singapore and Hong Kong, helped to place TV manufactureing and microchip production in Asia and gave every American household tat wanted them two tvs. A strong Yuan might improve our export prospects and that is what the balance of trade is all about. Perhaps a strong Yuan will build manufactureing centers in Canada , the US and Mexico the same way that a strong Dollar built up Japan , Korea and now China.

You see it is a very strong Dollar that causes the negative balance of payment , reverseing the value of the relitive currencys is the whim move in this game.

John Conway has suggested "Whim," which is Nim except that at any point in the game a player may say "Whim" instead of moving; this decree alters the game from normal to misere. The whim may be invoked only once per game (*not* once per player per game). It turns out that Whim is just Nim with an extra "invisible" pile of counters (I forget of what size) representing the whim, but the same operator will surely have more interesting effects on other games.
http://sagme.blogspot.com/

[Plane]

I think it's childish to observe that a collapse in the U.S. economy would bring pain to others as well.  The person most affected by the crash is the victim.  The damage to its neighbours and trading partners is collateral. 

How many times have you heard that haveing the US as a neighbor is like sleeping with an elephant?

If an elehant fell onto a troop of Baboons I would expect the Elephant to survive.

[Michael Tee]

<<You seem to have it all bacwards.

<<In what way did the rise o the Dollar harm China? Europe? Anyone?>>

It sure as hell harmed Britain.  As the dollar rose the pound fell.  Finally it had to be devalued.  Britain owed so much money to the U.S.A. that it lost its competitive mercantile edge and its markets to the U.S.  In the end it lost its Empire.  It blew its brains out in WWII and when it had to pay the debt it had run up, everything had to go.  They had a very rough post-war recovery.  They still haven't recovered their pre-war status.  Probably never will.

In general if you import more than you export, as the U.S. does, you are going to be seriously damaged when the value of your currency falls.  That is just common sense - - either you see it or you don't.  If I buy my food from you for $100 Canadian dollars a week and suddenly my dollar loses value and now I gotta pay you $200 Canadian per week for the same food, you wanna know how I am harmed?  Get real.

<<What the US is exporting right now is dollars , whch collect in overseas accounts and harm their owners when they fall , but Americans dealing with other Americans will continue to use dollars and will buy American made products when imports are too expensive.>>

That's your problem right there.  You can't "buy American" because of your dependence on imports.  Even the fuel you need to move the products around inside America depends on imports.  The less your dollar is worth on the international market, the more dollars you gotta pay for the fuel.  The shipping costs escalate, and who pays?  In the end, YOU, the consumer.  Now try the same reasoning on the cost of the parts that used to be manufactured in Thailand, in the Philippines, etc.  The American manufacturer has to pay for those parts in dollars to his subcontractor.  Ooops!  Gotta pay more dollars for this part, more dollars for that part.  Guess what - - gotta charge more for the finished product.  Now try the same reasoning on the ingredients - - metals, ceramics, whatever is imported.  The American manufacturer has to charge more dollars for the same item to the American consumer.  What used to be an affordable item, available to everyone, is now a luxury item that only the rich can afford.    This is what happens when your currency is devalued and won't buy what it could buy before.  Your internal standard of living goes down.  Not for the very rich.  Just for guys like you, plane.  YOUR standard of living will go down. 


<<How many times have you heard that haveing the US as a neighbor is like sleeping with an elephant?

<<If an elehant fell onto a troop of Baboons I would expect the Elephant to survive.>>

OK, I think I got it with elephants and baboons.  Elephants crush baboons.  Interesting.  Let me know when you want to talk about economics.

[Plane]

<<How many times have you heard that haveing the US as a neighbor is like sleeping with an elephant?

<<If an elehant fell onto a troop of Baboons I would expect the Elephant to survive.>>

OK, I think I got it with elephants and baboons.  Elephants crush baboons.  Interesting.  Let me know when you want to talk about economics.

I hereby assert that the stumble of a large economy impacts smaller economys in its orbit more profoundly than its failures affect itself.

Interdependnce doesn't really imply an advantage to an exporter , or to an importer , this works best when the benefit is mutual , but this also means that the pain is mutual when the system fails .

Mutual but not necessacrily even. Trade with China has improved the condition of the common man in China but the sudden absense of this trade would destroy decades of progress in China ,would this be evenly felt?

While the US would have to eat its own produce and cut down on vacatons , our clients and our suplyers would have to keep stacks of luxurys we hve no  cash for anymore , and pity the vacation destination abandoned by the middle class and serveing only the wealthy.

Less driveing and less flying means that Americans will have to vacation closer to home , sorry safari ,can't come.

[Michael Tee]

<<Mutual but not necessacrily even. Trade with China has improved the condition of the common man in China but the sudden absense of this trade would destroy decades of progress in China ,would this be evenly felt?>>

China has a huge internal market which they have barely started to exploit.

<<Interdependnce doesn't really imply an advantage to an exporter , or to an importer , this works best when the benefit is mutual , but this also means that the pain is mutual when the system fails .>>

Let me know when you find any real examples of interdependence in the real world. 

<<While the US would have to eat its own produce and cut down on vacatons , our clients and our suplyers would have to keep stacks of luxurys we hve no  cash for anymore , and pity the vacation destination abandoned by the middle class and serveing only the wealthy.>>

Believe me plane, the crash of your currency will be a disaster for Americans and a minor blip in the road of their former vacation hosts.  There might be a few Caribbean islands that suffer in the short run, but Cuba has been doing very well in its tourist industry without ANY Americans for over 40 years.  You're not as essential as you like to pretend you are.

<<Less driveing and less flying means that Americans will have to vacation closer to home , sorry safari ,can't come.>>

What it REALLY means is that to take any vacation at all, Americans will have to work even longer hours than they now do, and they are now working longer hours than any other industrialized country.  Longer hours, less vacation time, and less money for vacations if they have to spend more on every import they buy. 

[Plane]

<<Mutual but not necessacrily even. Trade with China has improved the condition of the common man in China but the sudden absense of this trade would destroy decades of progress in China ,would this be evenly felt?>>

China has a huge internal market which they have barely started to exploit.

<<Interdependnce doesn't really imply an advantage to an exporter , or to an importer , this works best when the benefit is mutual , but this also means that the pain is mutual when the system fails .>>

Let me know when you find any real examples of interdependence in the real world. 

<<While the US would have to eat its own produce and cut down on vacatons , our clients and our suplyers would have to keep stacks of luxurys we hve no  cash for anymore , and pity the vacation destination abandoned by the middle class and serveing only the wealthy.>>

Believe me plane, the crash of your currency will be a disaster for Americans and a minor blip in the road of their former vacation hosts.  There might be a few Caribbean islands that suffer in the short run, but Cuba has been doing very well in its tourist industry without ANY Americans for over 40 years.  You're not as essential as you like to pretend you are.

<<Less driveing and less flying means that Americans will have to vacation closer to home , sorry safari ,can't come.>>

What it REALLY means is that to take any vacation at all, Americans will have to work even longer hours than they now do, and they are now working longer hours than any other industrialized country.  Longer hours, less vacation time, and less money for vacations if they have to spend more on every import they buy. 

[Michael Tee]

<<While the US would have to eat its own produce and cut down on vacatons . . . >>

Ooooops!  Didn't you forget something?  Like paying for all those imports you'd become accustomed to?  The cheap treats for the masses?


<< . . . our clients and our suplyers would have to keep stacks of luxurys we hve no  cash for anymore , and pity the vacation destination abandoned by the middle class and serveing only the wealthy.>>

Oooooops!  aren't you forgetting someone?  Like the Chinese, Indians, Europeans and Brazilians who will have been getting richer as you were getting poorer?  I'm sure they'd like to try out some of those Caribbean pleasure destinations.  Hell, they might even want to try out Miami Beach.  Nothing's a one-way street under capitalism, plane.  If I get richer, it's because you get poorer.  That's just how it works, nothing personal, and the U.S. is gonna see the other side of the equation pretty soon - - if you get poorer, someone else gets richer.  Decades of war, imperialism and mismanagement are going to present their bill, if not this year, then next year or the year after.  But don't worry, your beloved leaders will not feel any of the pain.  Feeling the pain is the patriotic duty of the worker bees, not the plutocracy.

[_JS]

"the euro or a "basket" of currencies replacing the U.S. dollar as the international reserve currency"


Would this really be bad news for anyone?


IN the view of the World Socialist Web Site is it good news?


The American economy grew rapidly during the eras that the Spanish currency was preemminent , French or English currency being the most spent in the world didn't harm us either.

The Chineese economy has not been harmed by the preeminence of the dollar during the past three decades , since they have been co-operateing with the dollar it has been kind to them, if the Euro is breifly the currency of business it is likely to be the Yuan that replaces it on top quite soon.

And if so ,who will be harmed?

Was Europe harmed when the Dollar became the most popular?

Let it happen , this is harmless.

No, it isn't harmless. Not for Americans and not for our economy.

I'd encourage reading up on this as the impact would be profound. One of the reasons the dollar has a value is because of the Chinese and other nations using it as a reserve currency. If a flood of dollars hits the market as worthless currency - replaced by the Euro, then it will sink in value even more. Think of what Argentina went through not long ago. When currency sinks, inflation rises, things we import hit the roof - things like petroleum.

[Plane]

"the euro or a "basket" of currencies replacing the U.S. dollar as the international reserve currency"


Would this really be bad news for anyone?


IN the view of the World Socialist Web Site is it good news?


The American economy grew rapidly during the eras that the Spanish currency was preemminent , French or English currency being the most spent in the world didn't harm us either.

The Chineese economy has not been harmed by the preeminence of the dollar during the past three decades , since they have been co-operateing with the dollar it has been kind to them, if the Euro is breifly the currency of business it is likely to be the Yuan that replaces it on top quite soon.

And if so ,who will be harmed?

Was Europe harmed when the Dollar became the most popular?

Let it happen , this is harmless.

No, it isn't harmless. Not for Americans and not for our economy.

I'd encourage reading up on this as the impact would be profound. One of the reasons the dollar has a value is because of the Chinese and other nations using it as a reserve currency. If a flood of dollars hits the market as worthless currency - replaced by the Euro, then it will sink in value even more. Think of what Argentina went through not long ago. When currency sinks, inflation rises, things we import hit the roof - things like petroleum.

Oil ought to be more realisticly priced.
The natural  operation of the market often does the right thing and ususally should not be interfered with.
Things we export will benefit in exactly the same measure as things we import will suffer.

Artificilly manipulateing the market forces might do no more than make these changes lurches instead of smooth conersions that are more easily coped with.

Why do you expect the USA tobe harmed by a stronger Euro?

Was Saud Arabia ever hurt by a strong dollar?

Th dollar has fallen in real terms every year since we abandoned the practice of backing currency with precious metal. The amount of gold a dollar would by now is just a fleck, but we could elect Ron Paul and have real money again , unless we do we don't really care do we?