Obama Defeats Clinton in Virginia PrimaryBy Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Sen. Barack Obama scored a convincing victory over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Virginia's Democratic presidential primary, an early indicator of a strong showing for the Illinois senator in today's Potomac Primary. This will be considered a surprise to most observers as the Hillary political machine was expected to best him in Virginia.
Polls closed in the commonwealth at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
Virginia was the state in which Clinton, reeling from a staff shakeup and a series of defeats in primaries and caucuses last weekend, had hoped to perform beyond modest expectations. Obama's win in Virginia bodes well for his chances in Maryland and the District of Columbia, both of which held primaries today and where polls close at 8 p.m.
Should Obama sweep the Potomac Primary -- and pick up most of the 168 delegates at stake in the three states -- he will have claimed eight straight contests since Feb. 5's Super Tuesday votes. He is also well positioned in Wisconsin and Hawaii, both of which vote a week from today.
Clinton once enjoyed front-runner status and led in the race for the 2,025 delegates needed to seal the Democratic nomination. But her campaign has struggled to build momentum after Feb. 5, as national polls have shown Obama pulling into a virtual tie with the New York senator, and Clinton's campaign manager stepping aside less than 72 hours before today's vote.
Independent surveys sponsored by MSNBC and McClatchy over the closing days of the campaign showed Obama with an 18-point lead over Clinton in Maryland. There has been no recent polling in the District. But Obama, the first African American politician with a realistic opportunity of capturing the Democratic presidential nomination, enjoys widespread support among the District's nearly 60 percent black population.
Preliminary exit polling in Maryland and Virginia suggests that the key attribute Democratic primary voters are looking for in a candidate is an ability to bring about change -- results consistent with previous primaries and caucuses. In the past, Obama has done well among voters who say they are seeking fundamental change in politics.
Democrats voting in Maryland and Virginia also say in the exit polling that the economy is the most pressing concern facing the country, just as it has been a top issue for the vast majority of voters taking part in recent causes and primaries.
Independent surveys sponsored by MSNBC and McClatchy over the closing days of the campaign showed Obama with an 18-point lead over Clinton in Maryland and a 16-point advantage in Virginia. There has been no recent polling in the District. But Obama, the first African American politician with a realistic opportunity of capturing the Democratic presidential nomination, enjoys widespread support among the District's nearly 60 percent black population.
Election officials throughout the region reported potentially record-breaking voter turnout today in the first-ever "Potomac Primary" as voters seemed eager to take part in one the most closely contested and historic presidential races ever.
"Something or someone has energized the voters," said Rafael Beltran III, chief of elections at the polling station in the Verizon building in Arlington. "For the first time in years, some candidate or some message is coming out loud and clear."
In the District, officials said the turnout was so high that some polling places ran out of ballots. William R. O'Field Jr., spokesman for the D.C. Board of Elections and Ethics, said the city was experiencing a high voter turnout compared to past presidential primaries, leading to a number of problems at the polls.
In Maryland, officials were projecting a 39 percent turnout, which would be one of the highest in recent years. The risk of bad weather later today could lower that, said deputy elections chief Ross Goldstein.
On the eve of today's vote, the Clinton campaign held a conference call designed to downplay expectations. "We expected this to be a difficult period for us," said pollster Mark Penn. "We are expecting that [Obama] is going to do very well this month and in these states."
Dan Pfeiffer, Obama's communications director, noted that Clinton and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, have campaigned aggressively in Virginia and Maryland in recent weeks and her campaign has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to promote her message.
"But the more voters have gotten to know Senator Obama and his message of change, the more they support him, so we're hopeful that we will have the grassroots support to do well today," Pfeiffer said.
Obama was joined at Eastern Market in the District by Mayor Adrian Fenty, who has endorsed the freshman Illinois senator. "Let me contribute to the tax revenue of Washington," Obama said to Fenty as he Obama bought donuts and hot chocolate for campaign volunteers.
At one time, the Potomac Primary was considered an afterthought by the two Democratic rivals, with so much riding on the Super Tuesday contests in 22 states including New York and California. But with the race for the nomination a dead heat, the 168 combined delegates in Maryland, Virginia and the District loom as an important political prize.
The results of the primaries and caucuses held since the Feb. 5 "Super Tuesday" balloting are stark. Obama racked up impressive margins in sweeping caucuses in Nebraska and Washington state and the Louisiana primary on Saturday and a surprising win in the Maine caucuses on Sunday.
If Obama sweeps today's three votes, he would enter next Tuesday's contests in Wisconsin and Hawaii as a favorite. Victories there would set up primaries in Ohio and Texas - scheduled for March 4 - as must-wins for the Clinton campaign.
Clinton's campaign strategists have long viewed Ohio and Texas as a firewall for the former first lady, two large, diverse, delegate-rich states that could offset Obama's string of victories in smaller caucus states where Obama's campaign has been more adroit in organizing and turning out supporters.
But recent events have troubled Clinton supporters and donors, with some fearing that if Obama extends his string of victories, the momentum could well carry into Ohio and Texas, undermining Clinton's bid for the nomination.
As has been the case in every contest to date on the Democratic side, early indicators seemed to suggest record turnout in each of three contests today. Ross Goldstein, Maryland's deputy elections chief, said based on voting patterns so far, officials are projecting 39 percent turnout statewide -- unless a winter storm keeps some people home in the afternoon. That would be one of the highest primary turnouts in recent years, topped by 40 percent in 1992, Goldstein said.
The excitement surrounding the Democratic contest is a reflection of the historic nature of the choice. Clinton would be the first woman ever to be nominated as a major party's presidential nominee; Obama would be the first African-American to lay claim to the same title.
At stake in tonight's Potomac Primary are 168 Democratic delegates in a fight for the nomination that appears increasingly likely to extend for weeks if not months. According to the Associated Press delegate projections, Clinton holds a 1,147 to 1,124 delegate lead over Obama - a sum that includes not only pledged delegates but also super delegates, a group of roughly 800 elected officials and other party establishment figures.
The demographics of Maryland and the District of Columbia shape up nicely for Obama. Black voters comprise nearly six in ten residents of the District and three in ten Marylanders. Obama, the first African American with a serious chance of winning a major party's nomination for president, has won huge margins among black voters in South Carolina and several other states that have already cast votes.
The black population in Virginia is less than 20 percent. Not coincidentally, Virginia is the state where Clinton hopes to do best tonight. Obama has Gov. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) on his side and is also expected to run well in northern Virginia - suburbs of Washington packed with the highly educated, affluent voters that have been one of the pillars of Obama's support thus far in the race.
Primaries in Maryland and the District are closed, meaning that only registered Democrats can participate. Virginia does not have voter registration by party so Democrats, Republicans and Independents can all participate in today's primary.
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