question about stuff here

[kimba1]

for some reason it dawned on me
if the U.S. pulled out,is it possible for al qeida to take over?
i don`t mean that the present gov. can succesfully sustain itself.
I mean can al qeida be able take charge of iraq?
it`s onething to cause chaos ,but its another to be a government.
remember when saddam left,people were not exactly sad.
iraq is not eactly a thriving country.
iran at least has a growing technology to help with the economy.

[sirs]

for some reason it dawned on me   if the U.S. pulled out,is it possible for al qeida to take over?  i don`t mean that the present gov. can succesfully sustain itself.  I mean can al qeida be able take charge of iraq?

In 1 word Kimba, yes.  It would be possible, especially if we leave prematurely.  The pathetic part in such a scenario, the left would immediately blame Bush, claim his wreckless polcies allowed such, completely ignoring if we did happen to leave too soon.  In other words, he's DIHD...DIHD't

[Plane]

I would say yes .

It is possible whether we leave or stay , Al Queda has the potential to be influential as a lobbying group that takes hostages , they could be a power in the competition if they keep their act together.

[kimba1]

sorry I said it wrong
can al qieda handle running iraq?
it not likely they got a economic game plan once they are in charge.

[kimba1]

I keep thinking about the 80`s with all those rebel takeover in south america
I don`t remember, did any of them ever last

[Plane]

sorry I said it wrong
can al qieda handle running iraq?
it not likely they got a economic game plan once they are in charge.

Depends on who you want to satisfy.

They ran the Taliban and the Taliban ran Afganistan , they considered their program a success even though about two million
Afgans lived in refugee camps just over their borders.


If Al Queda takes over they will do as they want and call any result a success.

[kimba1]

yeah
but the taliban was in it`s infant stage when it got took over.
it`s unknown if it would of lasted.
but the fact that it coming back might indicate it could.
it sad part is quite a few dictatorship don`t get topple by it`s own people
but from outside sources.
ex. edi amin.

[Mucho]

yeah
but the taliban was in it`s infant stage when it got took over.
it`s unknown if it would of lasted.
but the fact that it coming back might indicate it could.
it sad part is quite a few dictatorship don`t get topple by it`s own people
but from outside sources.
ex. edi amin.

I am coming to the conclusion that people usually get the govt they deserve. In Iraq only a strong if brutal leader could hold tha hellhole together as we are  now belatedly beginning to see. Even we got what we deserved with the Bushidiot due to our own inattention and laziness. I hope we dont let them steal it aagin.

[Xavier_Onassis]

No there is NO WAY that Al Qaida could actually run Iraq. At most, they could use some small part pof Iraq as a base of operations. Al Qaida is a Saudi, not an Iraqi, organization, and they could only run free Afghanistan because of the money they provided to Sheik Omar. They no longer have money.

This is not to say that Iraq might end up with a govt. that is very anti-American, eventually. Had it not been for the invasion, therte would be about a half million Iraqis, that's one out of 45, alive today. It's a tribal society, where grudges last a loooong time and revenge is a major part of the culture.

Very unlikely that Saddam would have killed that many in so short a time.

[Michael Tee]

I think it all depends on what you mean by "running" Iraq.  If al Qaeda took over the reins of government in Baghdad, you'd have an Afghan-like situation.  They couldn't "run" Basra and they couldn't "run" the Kurdish north.  Depending on how they accommodate to the tribes of the Sunni Triangle, they'd have more or less influence there.  You'd have a crazy-quilt situation of local warlords, private armies etc. all on some kind of spectrum of al Qaeda alignment, ranging from open armed opposition to actual al Qaeda fiefdoms.  Pretty much the way Israel wants it.

The likelier scenario is that one faction will emerge victorious over the others in a military struggle and within that faction, a small group, probably a triad, of officers will emerge as the leaders, and from that triad, a few years further down the road, one guy will come out as top dog, much as Saddam did years ago.