U.S. Attack on Iran Would Have Terrible Consequences

[Plane]

<<That's what FOREX markets are for...>>

No shit, Sherlock.  And like any market, they're subject to the law of supply and demand.  What I get for my dollar in a FOREX market depends on how many people want it.

True and the only reson that any dollar is worth a dollar is that you can get an American to work for it (or a Mexcan) that is the only thing that a Dollar has been worth for a long time.

If you have a Ero can you get a Euroean to work for it?

[Michael Tee]

<<True and the only reson that any dollar is worth a dollar is that you can get an American to work for it (or a Mexcan) that is the nly thing that a Dollar has been worth for a long time.>>

A dollar's worth whatever it's worth because people want to buy them. They want to buy them for various reasons - - faith that America will repay its debts, and not with indiscriminately printing more paper money; people visiting America want dollars to spend there; people buying American products; people buying oil.  When the U.S. incurs huge liabilities with no foreseeable ROI (as for example in blowing a half-trillion in a wasted effort to subdue Iraq and steal its oil, rather than investing in the health and education of its own people) people who might have been interested in buying Treasury bonds start to wonder if the U.S. can meet the debts it incurred as they fall due without printing lots of paper money and deflating the value of the dollars with which it repays its obligations.  Once they start wondering like that, some of them will switch to other bonds that look like better investments.  Also people have other places to visit besides America and don't have to buy American products either.  Maybe they need more yen or more euros.

If you have noticed recently the demand for dollars has been waning as the demand for euros has been increasing. so the euro rises against the dollar.

<<If you have a Ero can you get a Euroean to work for it?>>

I get a euro for the same reason others would buy dollars - - I want to buy an EU product, visit an EU country or invest in EU securities.  I have more confidence in the Europeans' abilities to manage their finances than I do in the Americans', so Euro securities look like better bets to me.  While the Americans are at war, the Europeans are at work, building a stronger economy and a superior infrastructure.  I don't worry about Europeans working or not working - - I worry more about Amerikkkans wasting so much time, money and attention on their wars.   Europeans already have the advantage in education, health and population over the U.S.A. so it's doubly worrisome to see Europe with all its natural advantages  engaged in constructive activities while Amerikkka squanders its energies on losing wars.  The Euro is obviously a better bet than the dollar and the FOREX reflects that.

[Plane]

A dollar's worth whatever it's worth because people want to buy them. They want to buy them for various reasons - - faith that America will repay its debts, and not with indiscriminately printing more paper money; people visiting America want dollars to spend there; people buying American products; people buying oil.  When the U.S. incurs huge liabilities with no foreseeable ROI (as for example in blowing a half-trillion in a wasted effort to subdue Iraq and steal its oil, rather than investing in the health and education of its own people).....

 .........people who might have been interested in buying Treasury bonds start to wonder if the U.S. can meet the debts it incurred as they fall due without printing lots of paper money and deflating the value of the dollars with which it repays its obligations. ......

 Once they start wondering like that, some of them will switch to other bonds that look like better investments.  Also people have other places to visit besides America and don't have to buy American products either.  Maybe they need more yen or more euros.

If you have noticed recently the demand for dollars has been waning as the demand for euros has been increasing. so the euro rises against the dollar.

<<If you have a Ero can you get a Euroean to work for it?>>

I get a euro for the same reason others would buy dollars - - I want to buy an EU product, visit an EU country or invest in EU securities.  I have more confidence in the Europeans' abilities to manage their finances than I do in the Americans', so Euro securities look like better bets to me.  While the Americans are at war, the Europeans are at work, building a stronger economy and a superior infrastructure.  I don't worry about Europeans working or not working - - I worry more about Amerikkkans wasting so much time, money and attention on their wars.   Europeans already have the advantage in education, health and population over the U.S.A. so it's doubly worrisome to see Europe with all its natural advantages  engaged in constructive activities while Amerikkka squanders its energies on losing wars.  The Euro is obviously a better bet than the dollar and the FOREX reflects that.

This is actually happening more to the Social Security than anyone wants to admit.
If we have a few years of low employment Treasury bonds are gonna flop.

The war in Iraq is relitively cheap compared to the load of entitlements the government is trying to carry.

Euope is not really working as well as we are , our economy has a growing fragility , Europe has the same only worse.

[Amianthus]

No shit, Sherlock.  And like any market, they're subject to the law of supply and demand.  What I get for my dollar in a FOREX market depends on how many people want it.

Every major corporation in the US, including oil companies, already has heavy holdings in many FOREX issues. So they have Euros available.

[Christians4LessGvt]

cant wait for this to happen

DEBKAfile Reports:
US Gulf armada built up again amid preparations for third round of Security Council sanctions against Iran

December 2, 2007, 11:28 PM (GMT+02:00)
 
ScanEagle drone - a noiseless spycraft aboard the Truman strike group
 
DEBKAfile?s military sources report that a third aircraft carrier, the USS Harry S. Truman , arrived in the Central Command area over the weekend to join the USS Enterprise and USS Nimitz . All three head mighty strike groups of assorted warships, aircraft, marine forces, amphibious craft and nuclear submarines. Our sources interpret the new build-up as signifying US preparedness for a possible military confrontation with Iran.

The Truman strike group under the command of Rear Adm. Bill Gortney is equipped with the most advanced electronics in the fleet for coordinating offensive and defensive operations in a major war.

DEBKAfile?s military sources report that, last week, on its way to the Gulf arena, an element of the Truman group, the guided missile destroyer USS Oscar Austin , ran tests on the ScanEagle unmanned aerial vehicle. This UAV?s primary mission is to provide intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support for the Truman group.

It is the first time a UAV has been employed in this way by a US multi-mission naval group and, should hostilities break out with Iran, this drone would make war history. ScanEagle flies up to 10,000 feet, clicking electro-optical or infrared cameras 20 hours of the day and night. It is completely noiseless.

Another key element of the Truman group is the huge floating supply depot USNS Artic . While keeping up with the speed of the carrier group, the Artic can take on from shuttle ships and redistribute to the rest of the group more than 177,000 barrels of oil, 2,150 tons of ammunition, and hundreds of tons of stores. The ten-vessel Truman group also includes a British destroyer, the HMS Manchester .

DEBKAfile?s military sources report that in response to the focus the Iranian navy is now placing on submarine warfare, the USS Enterprise group carried out a comprehensive anti-sub exercise in the northern Arabian Sea in mid-November. While the Enterprise operates mainly in the Afghanistan war arena, it can reach the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman within hours if called.

The Security Council is expected to approve before the end of the year harsh sanctions against Iran for flouting its resolutions on uranium enrichment and its clandestine military nuclear program. The US-led force massed close to Iran?s shores is poised to support these sanctions as well as react in the event of Tehran lashing out in the Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon or other fronts manned by its terrorist proxies.

[Lanya]

IRAN....From the New York Times:

    BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Report Says Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Program in 2003

What?

UPDATE: From CNN: The intelligence community is sending a classified assessment to Congress today saying that "Iran largely halted its nuclear development program back in the fall of 2003." Turns out that Iran was more susceptible to international pressure than anyone believed. Also: Iran is having lots of centrifuge problems and isn't even close to producing enriched uranium. "The key effort has pretty much been stopped." No wonder Dick Cheney didn't want this report released.

Barbara Starr comments that this is "Very much against the grain of what the Bush administration has been saying." Ya think?


http://www.washingtonmonthly.com

[Xavier_Onassis]

This is actually happening more to the Social Security than anyone wants to admit.
If we have a few years of low employment Treasury bonds are gonna flop.

The war in Iraq is relitively cheap compared to the load of entitlements the government is trying to carry.

Euope is not really working as well as we are , our economy has a growing fragility , Europe has the same only worse.
=============================================================================
No, it is not. The US government has never defaulted on any of its bonds, ever. During the Civil War, greenbacks could only be redeemed in silver or gold after a number of years had passed.\\\
The bonds in the SS fund are not the same as Treasury bonds, but they are also backed by the full faith & credit of the US government.

Iraq is 20 BILLION a month. That is not "relatively cheap". It is a huge drain, made even worse because, unlike money spent within the US it has less a multiplier effect, since it is speant outside the country.

If Europe was indeed "not working as well" as the US, then the Euro would be sinking against the dollar. and not rising, as is really the case.

When I read your stuff Plane, I can almost hear the Rushster shuffling his papers and thumping on the desk.

It's rather uncanny.

[BT]

The latest NIE said: "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program. We also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."

The report said U.S. intelligence had "moderate confidence" that Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program by mid-2007, but added that Tehran's intentions were unclear.

"Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so," it said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSWBT00801220071203?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true

[Michael Tee]

<<Every major corporation in the US, including oil companies, already has heavy holdings in many FOREX issues. So they have Euros available.>>

They are a factor in the price of the euro.  They can hold down the rate of increase in the price of a euro for a limited period of time because the holders of the reserves are in no rush to buy any more; but as the reserves are spent - - and as the rate of replenishment of the reserves starts to lag, because euro-holders become increasingly less willing to turn them in to buy dollars, then the time approaches when the reserves of euros drop to the point where they have to be replenished, and then there are more dollars out looking for euros, bringing down the value of the dollar and raising up the value of the euro.  Theoretically, a point could be reached when the reserves are totally exhausted but I don't think that point arrives very often, if at all.

Other holders of euro reserves (and reserves of the currencies of all countries that the U.S. trades with) is the Federal Reserve System.  These can be a weapon in the currency wars, because if the euro rises too high, the federal banks can dump euros onto the FOREX markets, artificially bringing down the price of the euro and providing a market for dollars, preventing the dollar from further declines.  Obviously a short-term measure and limited by the size of the reserve holdings.

[Plane]

This is actually happening more to the Social Security than anyone wants to admit.
If we have a few years of low employment Treasury bonds are gonna flop.

The war in Iraq is relitively cheap compared to the load of entitlements the government is trying to carry.

Euope is not really working as well as we are , our economy has a growing fragility , Europe has the same only worse.
=============================================================================
No, it is not. The US government has never defaulted on any of its bonds, ever. During the Civil War, greenbacks could only be redeemed in silver or gold after a number of years had passed.\\\
The bonds in the SS fund are not the same as Treasury bonds, but they are also backed by the full faith & credit of the US government.

What  faith you have. Why do you think that there is no limit to American borrowing?

Iraq is 20 BILLION a month. That is not "relatively cheap". It is a huge drain, made even worse because, unlike money spent within the US it has less a multiplier effect, since it is speant outside the country.

If you think Iraq is ruinously expeive , how do you also think that the much more expensive entitlement programs are not a huge drain?

If Europe was indeed "not working as well" as the US, then the Euro would be sinking against the dollar. and not rising, as is really the case.

When I read your stuff Plane, I can almost hear the Rushster shuffling his papers and thumping on the desk.

It's rather uncanny.

Would you be shocked to know that I am flattered to be compared to Rush Limbaugh?
I would be even more flattered if you really knew something about what Rush was saying.

[Michael Tee]

<<Would you be shocked to know that I am flattered to be compared to Rush Limbaugh?>>

Not really because I already know that in some circumstances you could become disappointed in Pat Robertson.

[The_Professor]

and yours, Barry Lynn. Or Anthony D. Romero.

[Xavier_Onassis]

Would you be shocked to know that I am flattered to be compared to Rush Limbaugh?

Not at all. I would feel entirely justified.
==========================
I would be even more flattered if you really knew something about what Rush was saying.

Rush is an overpaid hatemonger who is being paid to entertain and indoctrinate guys like you.

I fail to see why you would be flattered if I supposedly understood what Rush was saying,

It is obvious what he is saying. It is in no way complicated. Hillary BAD, Republicans GOOD, Dittoheads, Sic' em!

[GrizFire]

its very simple....an Iranian firefighter jet can be over Saudia Arabia in a few minutes as it is less than 200 miles between the countries....how many super oil tankers would they have to sink or disable to create a huge oil crisis?..................1.  They can attack with jets or ships or submarines or rockets as well. 

[Plane]

its very simple....an Iranian firefighter jet can be over Saudia Arabia in a few minutes as it is less than 200 miles between the countries....how many super oil tankers would they have to sink or disable to create a huge oil crisis?..................1.  They can attack with jets or ships or submarines or rockets as well. 

The reasn this is unlikely is that Iranians dislike starvation.

Unless I am wrong and they do like starvation , theywould not benefit from blocade of the Gulf.