Author Topic: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"  (Read 3652 times)

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Michael Tee

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"You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« on: January 11, 2010, 06:51:49 PM »
Wow, really interesting and deep article by an Indian diplomat on the importance of Yemen in the coming struggle between the U.S. and China.

Yemen is more than meets the eye.

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA09Ak02.html

Plane

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2010, 08:38:54 PM »
Deago Garcea and Okinawa arenot enough anymore?

Michael Tee

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2010, 09:14:15 PM »
You know, I only picked one thought out of the whole article to post here.  I really wanted people to read that guy's analysis, it was   brilliant and multi-faceted.  The idea of Yemen's importance in a war with China is just a tiny fraction of what's in the article.

Plane

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2010, 09:28:57 PM »
What did you think he has right?

Michael Tee

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2010, 12:11:25 AM »
I think he got the strategic importance of Aden right. 

A lot of the article wasn't so much what he got right as the display of perspectives I had never seen before, and frankly, don't know enough about to know if he got it right or not.  Just new issues being raised.  For example, the influence - - alleged influence - - of Israel over the northern rebels.  The idea that Israel would have influence with ANY party to a Yemeni civil war.  The religious nature of the north-south split in Yemen, which I previously thought was only tribal.  The attempts of Russia and China to make inroads in Yemen.

It just seemed like a very interesting article, full of new insights and perspectives, and so I thought that you, and others here, would be interested in it.

Plane

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2010, 05:35:42 AM »
It certainly reveils a certain sort of thinking, includeing an assumption that the US and China have got to have a fight.

This is not really so , this week China became the worlds biggest exporter, surpassing Germany .

When did China fight Germany?

I don't think that a foot race has to end in a wrestleing match.

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2010, 10:31:04 AM »
Thanks Michael....very interesting stuff and I am happy to hear the US even under Obama is focused on keeping the United States aggressive at protecting strategic/vital interests in that area of the world. Of course I strongly disagree with the author's premise concerning "another war that could turn out to be as bloody and chaotic and unwinnable as Iraq and Afghanistan". I think we already won in Iraq and Iraq is forging ahead signing new oil contracts, rebuilding, and on the road to democracy.....but thats really not the focus of the article anyway. Looks like Obama will adopt the Clinton Kosevo Doctrine and primarily use air power to kill the enemy in Yemen.....plus if Isreal goes ahead and attacks Iran many of these "problems" like Yemen, Hezbollah, Syria, ect....will clean up nicely because Iran will focus on internal survival instead of exporting weapons to these problem areas.
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2010, 11:20:03 AM »


Iran Says U.S., Israel May Be Behind Killing of Nuclear Expert

By Ladane Nasseri and Ali Sheikholeslami

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Iran said U.S. and Israeli spy agencies may have conspired with dissident Iranians to kill a nuclear scientist in a bomb attack today in Tehran.

Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, a professor of nuclear physics, was killed by a remote-controlled device planted on a motorcycle in front of his home in the Qeytarieh neighborhood, state-run Press TV said. The Kingdom Assembly of Iran, a political group that seeks to end Iran?s religious rule, took responsibility for the bombing in a statement, the state-run Fars news agency said.

?Signs of evil by the triangle of the Zionist regime, the U.S. and their mercenaries in Iran can be seen in this terrorist incident,? Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast was cited as saying by Fars. ?Such terrorist acts and the elimination of the country?s nuclear scientists will certainly not halt the scientific and technological process.?

The U.S. and its allies accuse Iran of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, while the Persian Gulf country says it wants the technology for peaceful purposes. State media didn?t say whether Ali-Mohammadi was involved in Iran?s nuclear program. The Iran Atomic Energy Organization spokesman, Ali Shirzadian, wasn?t immediately available for comment.

State television identified the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and Israel?s Mossad as having possible involvement. Press TV said the killing may be linked to Israel?s opposition to Iran?s nuclear development.

There have been no arrests in the case, Tehran prosecutor- general Abbas Jafari-Dolatabadi told the state-run Iranian Students News Agency.

Loyal to Government

The killing of Ali-Mohammadi, who taught at Tehran University, was ?a terrorist act by anti-revolutionary elements,? state television said. He was ?a revolutionary,? it said, a term used by the government to describe individuals who are loyal to the country?s Shiite Muslim leadership.

Iran has been in political turmoil since President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?s disputed re-election in June, which provoked the biggest street protests since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. He denies allegations by opponents that the vote was rigged.

Anti-government demonstrations flared up again last month in Tehran and other major cities, prompting a crackdown by security forces that authorities said had left eight people dead.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ladane Nasseri in Beirut at lnasseri@bloomberg.net; Ali Sheikholeslami in London at alis2@bloomberg.net.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aT3gNEy3PnhQ
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Michael Tee

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2010, 11:34:09 AM »
<<When did China fight Germany?

<<I don't think that a foot race has to end in a wrestleing match.>>

Maybe you should be asking when did Japan fight America?  In the  1930s, "made in Japan" had the same kind of resonance in America that "made in China" does today.  Their exports were everywhere.  One of their cities or manufacturing regions was re-named "Usa" so that its products could be stamped "made in USA."

I don't think anything's inevitable but when declining superpowers try to hold on to what they have, wars frequently result.  You may also have noticed that the USA, despite the virtually inexplicable Nobel Prize awarded to its current President, is hardly a peace-loving nation.  Wars can also start when unlikely allies become sufficiently alarmed by the aggressive actions of a powerful nation that they finally realize the necessity of banding together to eliminate the threat. 

Personally, I think that if it does come to war between China and the U.S.A., it will be over oil and will come at a time of China's choosing, which I think will be at least a decade away, enough time for the Chinese to narrow the weapons gap and for the U.S. to deteriorate further financially.  And you can thank your last President if, instead of steadily building over the past decade, the force of international law and its ability to resolve disputes by peaceful means, has actually been set back by fifty to a hundred years. 

Michael Tee

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2010, 11:57:51 AM »
<<Of course I strongly disagree with the author's premise concerning "another war that could turn out to be as bloody and chaotic and unwinnable as Iraq and Afghanistan". I think we already won in Iraq and Iraq is forging ahead signing new oil contracts, rebuilding, and on the road to democracy.....>>

It seems pretty clear at this point, CU4, that the Persians are the only winners in Iraq.  You have an anti-socialist government emerging in Iraq, which is bad but neither fatal nor irreversible, pro-Iranian and certainly of no direct advantage to the U.S.A.;  Chinese, Russian and Indonesian oil companies seem to have made inroads alongside of Exxon-Mobil, the only American major so far to gain a piece of the action (although possibly the real details are to be found in the sub-leases and sub-contracts where the real money is to be made) - - this is all kind of similar to what the British accomplished when they pulled out of Iraq, leaving behind a "constitutional monarchy" that sputtered along for about a dozen years before the Iraqi people pulled them out of their palaces and beat them to death in the streets.

The difference, of course, is in the number of permanent military bases left occupied by the Americans, indicating that the country is far from subdued and that fighting will break out much sooner, perhaps after Iran gets its nukes and is no longer subject to US-Israeli nuclear blackmail.  Or when the Chinese can wield a little more influence in the area, which, as the article indicates, the Americans are working hard to forestall.  When the British quit, they left lock, stock and barrel.  The Americans aren't really leaving anytime soon.  That is the bottom line on Iraq.

<<Looks like Obama will adopt the Clinton Kosevo Doctrine and primarily use air power to kill the enemy in Yemen.....>>

It'll work till the "enemy" perfects its shoe-bombing technique and brings home the cost of aggression to the U.S. public, or till the American voters finally realize the true cost of their foreign policy in high-tech warfare, homeland security and growing boycotts of U.S. and Israeli products abroad.  There are all kinds of ways for asymmetrical warfare to bleed the aggressor, and personally I think the victims of US and Israeli aggression are just finding their way.  They're going to win in the end because (a) they are in the right and (b) they are, taken all together, numerically the stronger party.  The victims have a huge problem in learning to concentrate less on what divides them than on what unites them, but I am hopeful that over time they will realize their true priorities and focus on their common enemy.  They need leadership in that direction, which, sadly, has been lacking until now.

<<plus if Isreal goes ahead and attacks Iran many of these "problems" like Yemen, Hezbollah, Syria, ect....will clean up nicely because Iran will focus on internal survival instead of exporting weapons to these problem areas.>>

If that were true, Israel would have attacked Iran long ago.  It's obviously a very risky venture for the Israelis, who are not usually shy about attacking their neighbours.

Rich

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2010, 12:06:51 PM »
>>Of course I strongly disagree with the author's premise concerning "another war that could turn out to be as bloody and chaotic and unwinnable as Iraq and Afghanistan".<<

A wise disagreement. The Iraq war has been won, so the author is a bufoon.

Michael Tee

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2010, 12:19:34 PM »
<<The Iraq war has been won, so the author is a bufoon.>>

Won by Iran, maybe. 

When did Johnny come marching home, if he "won" this war?  When were the troops pulled out?

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2010, 12:51:28 PM »
Using that logic Michael Tee do you argue we did not win in Germany since we still have troops there?
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2010, 01:05:15 PM »
TWO CAN PLAY THIS GAME!

Covert war on Iran's nuclear program reaches into Tehran

DEBKAfile Special Report

January 12, 2010, 12:44 PM (GMT+02:00)


Nuclear physicist Masoud Ali Mohammadi

DEBKAfile reports: The covert war against Iran's nuclear program struck deep inside the Islamic Republic with the death Tuesday, Jan. 12 of nuclear physicist professor Masoud Ali Mohammadi, 50, by a remote-controlled exploding motorbike as he left his Tehran home. He was a senior professor at Tehran University which DEBKAfile's Iranian sources say is an important hub of nuclear weapons research.

Those sources stress that his death was unrelated to the political turbulence sweeping Iran since the June elections; state-run Press TV described him as a "staunch supporter" of Iran's 1979 revolution.

The targeting of the scientists in the heart of Tehran by a remote-controlled explosion shows that the covert agencies working to sabotage Iran's controversial nuclear program have managed to plant death squads in the Iranian capital like those operating in Damascus. Shadowy inside elements are therefore threatening the military nuclear projects of both these allies.

Before launching their investigation, Iranian officials laid the incident at the door of the Israel Mossad or the Paris-based Mujaheddin Khalq dissidents, which Tehran believes are sponsored by the CIA and the Mossad.

Iranian authorities see Mohammadi's death as ramping up the Western effort to recruit, intimidate or liquidate the brains behind Iran's nuclear progress and a warning. They are already keeping these scientists closely quarantined and forbidden overseas travel, their movements and correspondence closely monitored. But they failed to guard Prof. Mohammadi, just as last year two nuclear scientists managed to escape and apparently defected to the US: Shahram Amiri went missing while on a pilgrimage Saudi Arabia and a man known as "Ardebili" was allegedly arrested in Georgia and not seen since.

In Jan. 2007, a leading nuclear scientist Ardeshir Hassanbpour, professor at Shiraz University died of gas suffocation at his home in mysterious circumstances. And one more or more car accidents fall into the same unexplained category.
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Michael Tee

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Re: "You Can't Fight China Without Occupying Yemen"
« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2010, 02:11:26 PM »
<<Using that logic Michael Tee do you argue we did not win in Germany since we still have troops there?>>

No you won in Germany when all armed resistance ceased.  The troops in Germany were to oppose your former ally, the U.S.S.R. and after the formation of the German Federal Republic, they were there with the consent and active participation of the Germans.

Your troops left in Germany, after about a year, were not kicking in the doors of German citizens in the middle of the night, kidnapping, torturing and murdering them.  Yet these are the daily activities of your troops in Iraq.  If the war there is "won," why are they still fighting the Iraqi people?  They sure as hell didn't have to do that in Germany.