<<Of course I strongly disagree with the author's premise concerning "another war that could turn out to be as bloody and chaotic and unwinnable as Iraq and Afghanistan". I think we already won in Iraq and Iraq is forging ahead signing new oil contracts, rebuilding, and on the road to democracy.....>>
It seems pretty clear at this point, CU4, that the Persians are the only winners in Iraq. You have an anti-socialist government emerging in Iraq, which is bad but neither fatal nor irreversible, pro-Iranian and certainly of no direct advantage to the U.S.A.; Chinese, Russian and Indonesian oil companies seem to have made inroads alongside of Exxon-Mobil, the only American major so far to gain a piece of the action (although possibly the real details are to be found in the sub-leases and sub-contracts where the real money is to be made) - - this is all kind of similar to what the British accomplished when they pulled out of Iraq, leaving behind a "constitutional monarchy" that sputtered along for about a dozen years before the Iraqi people pulled them out of their palaces and beat them to death in the streets.
The difference, of course, is in the number of permanent military bases left occupied by the Americans, indicating that the country is far from subdued and that fighting will break out much sooner, perhaps after Iran gets its nukes and is no longer subject to US-Israeli nuclear blackmail. Or when the Chinese can wield a little more influence in the area, which, as the article indicates, the Americans are working hard to forestall. When the British quit, they left lock, stock and barrel. The Americans aren't really leaving anytime soon. That is the bottom line on Iraq.
<<Looks like Obama will adopt the Clinton Kosevo Doctrine and primarily use air power to kill the enemy in Yemen.....>>
It'll work till the "enemy" perfects its shoe-bombing technique and brings home the cost of aggression to the U.S. public, or till the American voters finally realize the true cost of their foreign policy in high-tech warfare, homeland security and growing boycotts of U.S. and Israeli products abroad. There are all kinds of ways for asymmetrical warfare to bleed the aggressor, and personally I think the victims of US and Israeli aggression are just finding their way. They're going to win in the end because (a) they are in the right and (b) they are, taken all together, numerically the stronger party. The victims have a huge problem in learning to concentrate less on what divides them than on what unites them, but I am hopeful that over time they will realize their true priorities and focus on their common enemy. They need leadership in that direction, which, sadly, has been lacking until now.
<<plus if Isreal goes ahead and attacks Iran many of these "problems" like Yemen, Hezbollah, Syria, ect....will clean up nicely because Iran will focus on internal survival instead of exporting weapons to these problem areas.>>
If that were true, Israel would have attacked Iran long ago. It's obviously a very risky venture for the Israelis, who are not usually shy about attacking their neighbours.
