Retirement on schedule

[Plane]

And with both men shying away from specifics, the exchanges are more rhetorical than substantive.

http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/105986/Candidates'-Social-Security-Plans-Lack-Details?mod=retirement-lifestyle

[Xavier_Onassis]

There is no way to discuss Social Security without giving the opposite side fodder for how either side plans to change SS. Observe how Juniorbush spent nearly a year on his rather cockamamie plan to no avail whatever. We are lucky that this was the case.The stock market is unpredictable.

[Plane]

There is no way to discuss Social Security without giving the opposite side fodder for how either side plans to change SS. Observe how Juniorbush spent nearly a year on his rather cockamamie plan to no avail whatever. We are lucky that this was the case.The stock market is unpredictable.

A predictable input of very large money mighthave improved the stock market a lot , all that money that was not invested in stocks and bonds went where?

[Xavier_Onassis]

A predictable input of very large money mighthave improved the stock market a lot , all that money that was not invested in stocks and bonds went where?


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It is not clear what you mean.

[crocat]

There is no way to discuss Social Security without giving the opposite side fodder for how either side plans to change SS. Observe how Juniorbush spent nearly a year on his rather cockamamie plan to no avail whatever. We are lucky that this was the case.The stock market is unpredictable.

Actually it is very predictable...the only problem is that when you go to Vegas and gamble, you are prepared for the odds.   When you invest in the stock market... not so much.

All I know is that we paid in the maximum for all but 5 years of our working career and we will take our social security now.

My broker (and I think this is one of those freudian things... cause when he calls I am usually broker) calls and tells me we lost 50% of our 401k.   What the hell do you do... if you pitch a fit and pull your money it stays in the pits.

I hold out until these sloppy bastards drag out every loser they have and 'come clean' during the 'bail out'... well me thinks I can get some back.

[Plane]

There is no way to discuss Social Security without giving the opposite side fodder for how either side plans to change SS. Observe how Juniorbush spent nearly a year on his rather cockamamie plan to no avail whatever. We are lucky that this was the case.The stock market is unpredictable.

Actually it is very predictable...the only problem is that when you go to Vegas and gamble, you are prepared for the odds.   When you invest in the stock market... not so much.

All I know is that we paid in the maximum for all but 5 years of our working career and we will take our social security now.

My broker (and I think this is one of those freudian things... cause when he calls I am usually broker) calls and tells me we lost 50% of our 401k.   What the hell do you do... if you pitch a fit and pull your money it stays in the pits.

I hold out until these sloppy bastards drag out every loser they have and 'come clean' during the 'bail out'... well me thinks I can get some back.

The TSP plan that we civil servants use has an interesting feature called the L fund.

Money in a young L fund is mostly in stock , but each year is is readjusted to be slightly more conservative.

So that by the time you retire only 10% of the fund is exposed to stocks , the rest being in government bonds.

If you have time on your side the roller coaster will not harm you , but if you might need the money soon the need to withdraw might be poorly matched with market dips.

[richpo64]

>>We are lucky that this was the case.The stock market is unpredictable.<<

This is wrong of course. The stock market is very stable over the long hall. We'd all be much better off ole nanny government let us invest at least part of our money ourselves. It's reasonable to either keep all your money in SS or take care of your own money. I can't see a problem with letting people do as they please with their plans for retirement.

But then I know some people want that money to spread around as the government sees fit.

[crocat]

There is no way to discuss Social Security without giving the opposite side fodder for how either side plans to change SS. Observe how Juniorbush spent nearly a year on his rather cockamamie plan to no avail whatever. We are lucky that this was the case.The stock market is unpredictable.

Actually it is very predictable...the only problem is that when you go to Vegas and gamble, you are prepared for the odds.   When you invest in the stock market... not so much.

All I know is that we paid in the maximum for all but 5 years of our working career and we will take our social security now.

My broker (and I think this is one of those freudian things... cause when he calls I am usually broker) calls and tells me we lost 50% of our 401k.   What the hell do you do... if you pitch a fit and pull your money it stays in the pits.

I hold out until these sloppy bastards drag out every loser they have and 'come clean' during the 'bail out'... well me thinks I can get some back.

The TSP plan that we civil servants use has an interesting feature called the L fund.

Money in a young L fund is mostly in stock , but each year is is readjusted to be slightly more conservative.

So that by the time you retire only 10% of the fund is exposed to stocks , the rest being in government bonds.

If you have time on your side the roller coaster will not harm you , but if you might need the money soon the need to withdraw might be poorly matched with market dips.

Plane, it is what it is.
If you want to make big quick... you need to gamble.   If you want to play safe then you are more conservative.   Read "Black Swan" it is very enlightening and none of this is a surprise.   This world and bad luck are not personal.   

The way I look at it, I have 5 years to recoup, if I do... I do.   If I  don't well I am sure I will figure it out.

[Plane]

There is no way to discuss Social Security without giving the opposite side fodder for how either side plans to change SS. Observe how Juniorbush spent nearly a year on his rather cockamamie plan to no avail whatever. We are lucky that this was the case.The stock market is unpredictable.

Actually it is very predictable...the only problem is that when you go to Vegas and gamble, you are prepared for the odds.   When you invest in the stock market... not so much.

All I know is that we paid in the maximum for all but 5 years of our working career and we will take our social security now.

My broker (and I think this is one of those freudian things... cause when he calls I am usually broker) calls and tells me we lost 50% of our 401k.   What the hell do you do... if you pitch a fit and pull your money it stays in the pits.

I hold out until these sloppy bastards drag out every loser they have and 'come clean' during the 'bail out'... well me thinks I can get some back.

The TSP plan that we civil servants use has an interesting feature called the L fund.

Money in a young L fund is mostly in stock , but each year is is readjusted to be slightly more conservative.

So that by the time you retire only 10% of the fund is exposed to stocks , the rest being in government bonds.

If you have time on your side the roller coaster will not harm you , but if you might need the money soon the need to withdraw might be poorly matched with market dips.

Plane, it is what it is.
If you want to make big quick... you need to gamble.   If you want to play safe then you are more conservative.   Read "Black Swan" it is very enlightening and none of this is a surprise.   This world and bad luck are not personal.   

The way I look at it, I have 5 years to recoup, if I do... I do.   If I  don't well I am sure I will figure it out.

It is my feeling that the recent dips represent a bottom and the next five years will be time enough to cycle through another bull market  , my opinion comes with no garuntee stronger than my habitual optimism.

The stock market has greed and fear as major factors , the world invests and the world invest most in the US , so the world has seen how likely it is that we are about to elect BHO and this is their reaction?

In five years we will have another election cycle and if BHO has been a desaster stock bought in his term will be bought at bargan rates and the election of a business freindly successor is likely, thenthe fifth year will be great.

If he is as lucky as Clinton was with the stock market you might have a good chance to harvest in his third year.

[Xavier_Onassis]

In five years we will have another election cycle and if BHO has been a desaster stock bought in his term will be bought at bargan rates and the election of a business freindly successor is likely, thenthe fifth year will be great.

If he is as lucky as Clinton was with the stock market you might have a good chance to harvest in his third year.
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The thing is, that is not the way that the stock market works for most people.

When it goes up, people see that there is some other sector or stock or fund going up even faster: gold, biomedical, tech, so they buy that, because that is what the brokers who have to sell something to make a buck want to sell. They buy it, and the price collapses, and there is always another big seller.

When the market tanks, what do most people do? They invest their shrunken capital in bonds, most often. Stocks and funds gain get nearly all their gains in under 30 days in any given year. Where are the funds of the average guy? In bonds. Look! he missed out again!

Most people who invest in the market actually lose money, and that is why replacing their SS with stock market investments is a really bad idea, because the goal is for EVERYONE to have enough to retire on, or at least a minimum.

Of course, there is absolutely nothing preventing said average Joe from saving his money and investing whatever he wishes in the market. It's just that this is not something that is likely to actually fund all his retirement.

[Plane]

In five years we will have another election cycle and if BHO has been a desaster stock bought in his term will be bought at bargan rates and the election of a business freindly successor is likely, thenthe fifth year will be great.

If he is as lucky as Clinton was with the stock market you might have a good chance to harvest in his third year.
=============================================================
The thing is, that is not the way that the stock market works for most people.

When it goes up, people see that there is some other sector or stock or fund going up even faster: gold, biomedical, tech, so they buy that, because that is what the brokers who have to sell something to make a buck want to sell. They buy it, and the price collapses, and there is always another big seller.

When the market tanks, what do most people do? They invest their shrunken capital in bonds, most often. Stocks and funds gain get nearly all their gains in under 30 days in any given year. Where are the funds of the average guy? In bonds. Look! he missed out again!

Most people who invest in the market actually lose money, and that is why replacing their SS with stock market investments is a really bad idea, because the goal is for EVERYONE to have enough to retire on, or at least a minimum.

Of course, there is absolutely nothing preventing said average Joe from saving his money and investing whatever he wishes in the market. It's just that this is not something that is likely to actually fund all his retirement.

I think these are common mistakes , but I also think that Crocat is already aware of them , and can avoid them by just doing the same thing she has been doing.

But as her retirement draws near , I beleive she should use a period of recovery as a harvest time and reconfigure the portfolio to conserve the capitol. No point in doing that now ,too likely that this is the bottom right now.

[Xavier_Onassis]

I think these are common mistakes , but I also think that Crocat is already aware of them , and can avoid them by just doing the same thing she has been doing.

But as her retirement draws near , I beleive she should use a period of recovery as a harvest time and reconfigure the portfolio to conserve the capitol. No point in doing that now ,too likely that this is the bottom right now.

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No, not really. Some types of companies are at the bottom, others will continue to drop. The things to be in now are biomedicals, healthcare, value funds. What you would want to get out of are financials, petroleum, and oil drilling machinery.

[Plane]

Why do you want out of Oil Drilling Machinery?

[crocat]

I think these are common mistakes , but I also think that Crocat is already aware of them , and can avoid them by just doing the same thing she has been doing.

But as her retirement draws near , I beleive she should use a period of recovery as a harvest time and reconfigure the portfolio to conserve the capitol. No point in doing that now ,too likely that this is the bottom right now.

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No, not really. Some types of companies are at the bottom, others will continue to drop. The things to be in now are biomedicals, healthcare, value funds. What you would want to get out of are financials, petroleum, and oil drilling machinery.

I disagree..... now is much too late to get out of much.  Better to take the little dip to the bottom and move up.  They are going to pump money into the banks and lenders because we are a debt based society.  Petroleum, I agree.... and I wouldn't let my broker buy Arab shit but oil drilling machinery, me thinks that is your behind the back fingers crossed hope.

That said, I think biomeds and green anything are a good bet.   Retail will rebound pretty quick because give people a few bucks (tax rebate) and they will be quick to blow it.

[Xavier_Onassis]

Check out RYVIX mutual fund and you will see why this is not a good time to be invested in this.

When oil returns to $95-$100 a barrel, then it would be useful to buy into this, as it would be at the bottom or close to it.