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451
3DHS / Only a Revolution Will Do
« on: February 11, 2008, 04:51:15 AM »
Only a Revolution Will Do
Posted by John Derbyshire on February 11, 2008

This is the first installment in a symposium on the Ron Paul movement to be published in Taki?s magazine over the next two weeks.

In his message to supporters on Friday, Dr. Paul declared his intention to continue campaigning, but with less intensity since, in the first place, ?the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero,? and in the second, he wants to put more effort into his own congressional campaign. He also promised, ?I am committed to fighting for our ideas within the Republican party, so there will be no third party run.?

John McCain must have gone down on his knees to give thanks on hearing that. A Ron Paul third party candidacy would have given a home to the many, many conservative Republicans who cannot imagine voting for McCain. A Jan. 29 Rasmussen poll found that, for example, a third-party Ron Paul would get 11 percent of the vote in a McCain-Obama general election. Practically all of that 11 percent would come out of John McCain?s hide. As hard as the media and the Republican establishment have tried to ignore Paul, he remains a potent force.

He is a potent force because his ideas have deep appeal. He has, in fact, in these later stages of the primary campaign, been the only candidate of ideas. While not very presentable by modern campaigner standards, lacking as he does the cheery wit of a Huckabee, the content-free eloquence of an Obama, and the steely unprincipled ruthlessness of a Clinton or McCain, Paul has had no real competition as a promoter of ideas.

We all know, for example, that there is something horribly wrong with the way the federal government spends our money, and that whatever it is that is wrong gets wronger by the congressional session, under presidents of either party. I think we all understand, too, that the fault here is not, or not only, the stupidity or venality of our elected officials, but the dynamics of modern democracy. As David Frum explained fourteen years ago in Dead Right: ?Conservatism has always been in danger of devolving from a philosophy of limited government to an ideology of middle-class self-interest ? If you cannot say ?no? to middle-class constituents, you cannot lighten the crushing load of government upon society.?

A system under which our representative could say ?no? to us?indeed, would have no choice but to do so?would be one in which government expansion bumped up against iron (actually, in Paul?s scheme, gold) fiscal constraints. A fiscal system revised along Paulian lines offers at least the possibility of that. Nothing else does. The ?solutions? to the spending calamity offered by the other candidates on this campaign trail have amounted to (a) Democrats vowing to spend yet more! and (b) Republicans saying that they will do such things, what they are yet they know not, that shall make them the terrors of the over-spenders.

Possibly a candidate of ideas is too much for the distracted, over-stimulated, Britney-ogling, text-messaging, iPod-jiggling, TV-addled electorate to tolerate. For myself, I wish Dr. Paul had gone deeper into this territory of intellectual conservatism. He did not say half enough, for example, about the National Question. It is true that he is a latecomer to the issue, having passed through orthodox libertarianism, in which there are no National Questions because nations themselves have been abolished as too deplorably constrictive of human liberty. Still, he might have said more and picked up some of the untold numbers of American patriots who are tired of seeing the National Question blithely ignored, or sneered at as being of concern only to ?racists,? ?nativists,? and other limbs of Satan.

Not that Paul hasn?t had useful things to say about the National Question?whenever before did a presidential candidate air TV campaign commercials arguing against birthright citizenship? Still, I don?t think he said these things often enough or at sufficient length. In his CPAC speech last week (one of the best I have seen him give?YouTube has it in three parts, here, here, and here), for example, he took a passing swipe at the preposterous North American Union being promoted by Bush and his Mexican allies, but had nothing to say about other National Question issues?workplace enforcement, visa controls, H-1B quotas, the Green Card Lottery, the border fence, etc. And having laid into John McCain for his partnerships in legislative enterprises brazenly hostile to elementary conservative principles with Russ Feingold, Edward Kennedy, Tom Daschle, and Al Gore, how could Paul have missed the biggest, stinkiest, most obnoxious target of all on that list?

The thing I am asked most often about the Paul campaign is: Why has the candidate not denounced the various nutso fringe groups?9/11 ?Truthers,? anti-Semites, Stormfronters, and the like?who have been loud in support for Paul and who (according to my questioners) have in some cases made contributions to his campaign under their own banners? Some people are very angry indeed about this. I have received a hundred emails like the following:

?I have noticed recently your support for Ron Paul. I assume, therefore, that he has unequivocally rejected the support of all the vile hate groups ? who have contributed to his campaign, has returned all of their contributions, has publicly rejected their philosophy and stated explicitly that they represent values that America despises.

?If my assumption is not correct, what the hell?s the matter with you? The issue is the refusal to condemn evil?and I think you know that as well as anyone. Paul?s refusal to return the money and his silence on their beliefs isn?t merely despicable ? it is an indebtedness to evil that he accepts. There has been nothing more horrifying in American politics since the German-American Bund.?

I am at a number of disadvantages here?in, for example, having no clue what ?the German-American Bund? is (some kind of river bank somewhere?), and in possessing a mind which switches off its attention on encountering PC bully words like ?vile? and ?despicable? (more usually ?abhorrent? in this sort of context?perhaps this particular correspondent came to me fresh from a Creative Writing seminar).

I assume Dr. Paul believes, as I do, that nutso fringe groups are not worth his time, since they have no influence on national affairs; that he has better things to do than sift through the lists of his contributors looking for their identifying marks (by no means always easy to spot); and that Americans can figure out for themselves what values they ?despise,? without his assistance.

I think he also believes?extraordinarily, for a modern politician!?that freedom of speech, conscience, and association are sacred and indivisible; that the least restraint on any of them leads inevitably to the kind of situation we see now in Canada, or in most European countries, where having the ?wrong? opinion about another guy?s religion, or about some historical event, can get you a jail sentence. If you are an anti-Semite, or a white supremacist, or a ?Truther,? or a worshipper of Baal, Dr. Paul is fine with it. If, in addition, you are such a fool as to send your money to the campaign of a candidate who has never, so far as I know, given a syllable of encouragement to any of these groups, he will take your money with a smile. So much the less for you to spend on your next torchlight rally.

Possibly?I should like to think it is so?Dr. Paul believes further that when the PC enforcers say ?Jump!? there are other responses a man of integrity can offer than ?How high?? In the matter of picking out people who have contributed to his campaign, he has in any case a ready answer: The fact that, as he said at CPAC, he has logged more money coming in from active-duty military servicepersons than all the other candidates combined, Democrat or Republican.

Well, the Ron Paul campaign continues, with enthusiasm, to judge from the innumerable email feeds I get from the Pauline community, very little diminished. If my party?the Republican Party?is to have John McCain as its presidential candidate, let us at least have a voice on the primary trail, and at the convention, and in the general election campaign, speaking out loud and unceasingly for the true conservative values John McCain has far too often ignored or betrayed.

The Senator won?t be pleased to hear that voice; but the media?free, now that they have McCain in position, to turn on him (as they surely will)?will be glad to amplify it.
Hearing that voice, the Senator will probably lose his temper a few times. Thus, in this sad election year, while conservatism?whichever party is victorious at last?faces inevitable defeat, the American people will at least get a good look at the true faces of both John McCain and real American conservatism. For the future progress of our ideas, and of our country, that is not nothing. Let?s work for it, and take it to the bank in November, and withdraw it with interest in 2012!

John Derbyshire is a contributing editor of National Review and the author of, most recently, Unknown Quantity: A Real and Imaginary History of Algebra.

[Photo courtesy of Ron Paul 2008]
Article URL: http://www.takimag.com/site/article/only_a_revolution_will_do/

452
3DHS / Archbishop of Canterbury Calls for Sharia in Britain
« on: February 08, 2008, 01:31:47 AM »
Archbishop of Canterbury Calls for Sharia in Britain

For once I have to agree with Rowan Williams, Archbishop of Canterbury, the moonbat who has been using his position as head of the Church of England to help dismantle the remnants of British civilization. He now proclaims that Muslim sharia law in the UK "seems unavoidable."

The key word is seems. Technically, Britain could still save itself, if it rose up against a liberal establishment run by quislings like Williams, who actually likes the idea of instituting Islamic law in what was until recently a Christian country.

He feels that Britain's Muslim conquerors should not have to choose between "the stark alternatives of cultural loyalty or state loyalty." Therefore the British government must become Islamicized.

Did I mention that this treasonous jackass is head of the Church of England?

At least not all Britons will have to live under sharia ? for the time being. Williams showcases his philosophical wisdom by proclaiming that the concept "there's one law for everybody" is "a bit of a danger."

Williams has sucked up to Muslims before. In stark contrast, Bishop of Rochester Michael Nazir-Ali has warned of the "no-go" areas Muslim colonists have been carving out in Britain. Unsurprisingly, Nazir-Ali has received death threats and has to live under police protection.

Maybe Williams thinks he will live a little longer by selling out his faith, his country and his culture. But who knows? When the Islamic conquest of Britain is complete, Williams might just lose his head anyway, despite his servile dhimmitude.


via Moonbattery

453
3DHS / Bumper sticker of the day....
« on: February 05, 2008, 07:50:28 PM »

454
3DHS / Mark Larsen interviews Mitt Romney
« on: January 29, 2008, 10:53:35 PM »

455
3DHS / With Thompson out, Tom McClintock leans to Ron Paul
« on: January 25, 2008, 01:41:25 PM »
With Thompson out, Tom McClintock leans to Ron Paul

With Fred Thompson out of the presidential race, who's a self-respecting conservative to go for? Could it be, maybe, perhaps, a certain Republican-libertarian from Texas?

That's one question perplexing California state Sen. Tom McClintock, possibly the second-most-famous California Republican currently in office after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

McClintock created a stir two months when he endorsed Thompson?s presidential candidacy. Having run for governor, lieutenant governor and state controller, McClintock has shown that while he has not won a statewide contest, he can win GOP primaries, which conservatives tend to dominate. So heading into the Feb. 5 primary, McClintock?s endorsement is seen as important in California.

Now McClintock is mulling his choices. And it comes down to the basics: "Who will respect our Constitution, defend our borders, and reduce the burdens of government on our people?" McClintock said Thursday in Sacramento as the Senate wrapped up its week. "If I were to vote today, I probably would be casting a vote for Ron Paul. I?m not voting today."

Why Paul?

"I do believe he will respect our Constitu-" McClintock said, then stopped midthought. "I don?t want to go too far. I am still looking."

Why not former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney? "I want somebody with a consistent record," McClintock said. "I want someone who didn?t have to go through a political epiphany the day before he announced his candidacy."

-- Dan Morain

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/01/with-fred-thomp.html

456
3DHS / Conservatives Lose
« on: January 24, 2008, 12:10:17 AM »

Conservatives Lose
by Donald Devine
Issue 99 - January 16, 2008

The radical leftist Alexander Cockburn said of the Iowa Republican victor: as ?demonstrated during his ten years as the governor of Arkansas, [Mike] Huckabee is a progressive, with enlightened views and a record of substantive action on immigration, public health, the regressive nature of sales taxes, education of poor kids and the possibility of redemption for convicted criminals.? As governor he was so ?enlightened? in following the state education association union agenda and with increasing spending generally, he received the endorsement of the New Hampshire NEA for president.

New Hampshire GOP winner John McCain voted against the George W. Bush tax cuts in 2001 and again in 2003. He supported the Administration?s amnesty immigration bill. He supported the No Child Left Behind educational centralization act. He was co-sponsor of the free-speech-limiting McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill. He is an enthusiastic supporter of more government market regulation in such fields as securities, automobiles and communications, among others.

Ronald Reagan would be appalled! Although a miracle is remotely possible, the likelihood is that Reagan conservatism is dead for this election.

Sure Gov. Huckabee is strong on conservative social issues and Sen. McCain is a war hero and often a leader against wasteful spending and earmarks. But Ronald Reagan insisted that conservatism was a triad of limited national government taxes, regulation and spending, a commitment to traditional social values, and a strong but pragmatic foreign policy. The closest to the Reagan tripartite formula is Fred Thompson but he came in a weak third in Iowa and had one percent in the Granite State. Ron Paul is strong on cutting spending and supporting traditional social issues but, although he recognizes proper limits on foreign entanglements, goes to the extreme of voting against almost all defense appropriations and sees little need for any foreign military presence at all.

While Mitt Romney mostly says things President Reagan would agree with, he has not been able to convince most people he is sincere and as a result received disappointing margins in the early states, including a narrow win in his home state Michigan, after large leads in early polls. The only other candidate registering in the nomination contests is Rudy Giuliani, who is questionable on all three of the Reagan criteria. So the chances a Reaganite can win are slim and none.

Even at its lowest ebb, conservatism had hope for the future. Barry Goldwater lost the 1964 election by a landslide. But conservatives considered him the winner because his ideals eventually triumphed under President Reagan. Although his opponent won overwhelmingly, by the end of Lyndon Johnson?s term he was so unpopular he could not even seek re-election. His Great Society ended in the 1970s with both colossal inflation and economic stagnation. In contrast, Sen. Goldwater?s idea of limited constitutional government became the Republican platform and rallied the imagination of the generation that nominated and elected Reagan, resulting in a 9.7 percent reduction in non-defense discretionary spending, with total domestic spending down from 17.9 to 16.4 percent of GDP during his tenure.

The only one with any claim to be a future Barry Goldwater is Rep. Paul; but he has some real problems and will certainly not follow his predecessor and win the GOP nomination. This is understandable because the limited government cause is now actually at an even lower ebb. Long gone are the days of President Reagan?s absolute reduction in discretionary spending over his eight years or even the limited Congressional reductions immediately following the 1994 election. The George W. Bush presidency has resulted in the largest percent increases in domestic national spending of any eight years since the early New Deal?and, of course, in inflation-adjusted dollars, absolute spending has increased many times more even than under Franklin Roosevelt with much greater market regulation and control over state and local governments.

Even worse, over these years most young Republicans now consider federal standards to control education, energy, commerce, agriculture, etc. as the proper positions of their party, rather than policy areas for state or local government or the private sector, as for Goldwater and Reagan. Many others think empire should be the foreign policy goal, while Reagan?s Weinberger Doctrine set narrow limits on the use of military force. In an era when a presumably conservative president says that ?when someone hurts, government has to move? no leader is speaking for a Reagan-like limited government and the young assume big government is the only solution.

The young people who provided the Goldwater movement with its energy and became the adult leadership for Reagan came predominately from an organization called Young Americans for Freedom. Its now aged alumni were asked their opinion of Rep. Paul and particularly what they would have thought of him if they were now as young as they were when they were first attracted to Goldwater. Twenty-seven percent were so opposed to his anti-war positions that they would not even consider him a conservative. Yet, while only 38 percent were actually supporting Paul for president, 72 percent thought they would have been attracted to and inspired by his limited constitutional government message when they were young.

Rep. Paul?s position that American forces should not be involved beyond its shores does go well beyond even traditional non-interventionism. YAF?s mission statement allowed foreign intervention based upon the ?just interests? of the U.S., not on abstract non-interventionism (nor upon abstract intervention, for that matter). From the earliest years of the new Constitution, the U.S. was in Morocco, Algiers, Tunis, Tripoli, the French high-seas, British Canada and Spanish Florida, to say nothing about against (foreign) Indian tribes. George Washington?s warning was against entangling, permanent alliances, not about rejecting foreign relationships per se. It is true, as Paul likes to quote, that John Quincy Adams spoke of America?s heart and how it should act in world affairs in the following terms.

    Wherever the standard of freedom and independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own. She will commend the general cause by the countenance of her voice, and the benignant sympathy of her example. She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom. The fundamental maxims of her policy would insensibly change from liberty to force. The frontlet on her brows would no longer beam with the ineffable splendor of freedom and independence; but in its stead would soon be substituted an imperial diadem, flashing in false and tarnished lustre the murky radiance of dominion and power. She might become the dictatress of the world; she would be no longer the ruler of her own spirit. . . . Her glory is not dominion, but liberty. Her march is the march of the mind.

Yet, Paul omits Adams? immediately following words.

    She has a spear and a shield: but the motto upon her shield is, Freedom, Independence, Peace. This has been her Declaration: this has been, as far as her necessary intercourse with the rest of mankind would permit, her practice.

Paul?s foreign policy views limit his future appeal. Even Adams held that America does have a spear as well as a shield and she can be aloof from foreign engagement only to the degree ?her necessary intercourse with the rest of mankind? allows. Adams, of course, himself was the author of the rather aggressive Monroe Doctrine setting terms for all of South America, as well as of the transcontinental treaty with Spain and new relationships with Denmark, Mexico, the Hanseatic League, the Scandinavian countries, Prussia and Austria. One can even agree with Paul that it was not in U.S. interests to invade Iraq but with Adams not to reject it on abstract principle but upon whether it was necessary or not, or whether it should not have degenerated into nation-building. It should be noted that even Rep. Paul voted for the initial engagement in Afghanistan.

On the other hand, there is no question that Paul has reached deep into popular passions at least among active citizens. His packed early rallies exploded with placards reading ?liberty, liberty.? John Derbyshire says they might be ?crazy, as some colleagues tell me? and ?perhaps they are, to be shouting for liberty in 2007, after decades of swelling federal power and arrogance, of proliferating taxes, rules, and interests, of gushing transfers of wealth to politically connected elites from working- and middle-class grunts, of the college and teacher-union scams, of the metastasizing tort-law rackets, of ever more numerous yet ever more clueless intelligence agencies, of open borders and visas for people who hate us, of widening cracks in our sense of nationhood (?Press one for English ??), of speech codes and race lobbies and judicial impositions.? One might even say it is as ?crazy? to be for limited constitutional government today as it was in 1964.

Political movements are built on enthusiasm and whatever the Paul supporters are, they are fervent. Talk is cheep but writing checks and activism show commitment. In fact, it was Barry Goldwater who was the first to support a presidential campaign predominantly on small contributions and this prefigured his influence. Paul?s fundraising is phenomenal. In November, Paul surpassed the all-time on-line record by raising over $3 million in a single day, from over 37,000 contributors, celebrating Guy Fawkes? rebellion against English oppression of all things, asking only $100 each. On Boston Tea Party Day he doubled that again with $6 million. Thousands contribute $25 per week. His fourth quarter 2007 fundraising of $18 million surpassed all other candidates and included many more individual contributors. While this does not represent a majority or even close to one, it does represent an army of activists?again following Goldwater.

Except for foreign policy, Paul is very much in the Goldwater and Reagan conservative tradition. Even there, Reagan committed U.S. troops much less than his successors, Republican and Democratic, and Paul?s admonitions against empire could fit into a new comprehensive Reaganite limited government platform. On domestic policy, Paul?s nickname regarding government spending is ?Dr. No,? voting against most spending bills in Congress. He is for sound money, eliminating government bureaus, federalism and privatization. He is against abortion, a national ID card, and an environmentalism that does not respect property rights. All matters not given to the national government in the Constitution should be exercised by the states or the people, he insists, mimicking the much neglected 10th Amendment.

Even if the Republican nominee wins the 2008 election, which is unlikely, the idea of limited government would not be high on his agenda and even if it were would be frustrated by a Democratic Congress. Meanwhile, Paul?s more passionate supporters will mature. There are nuts in any political movement?and there surely were in the 1960s--but mostly only the sound personalities persevere. Youthful enthusiasm is the lifeblood of any political movement and the only place it now exists on the right is with Mr. Paul, whatever his limitations. If the idea of limited government is to survive, it can paradoxically only come from a new generation of leaders motivated at least partially by a seventy-two year old Congressman.

Donald Devine, the editor of Conservative Battleline Online, was the director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management from 1981 to 1985 and is the director of the Federalist Leadership Center at Bellevue University.
E-mail the Editor
   

? 2008 American Conservative Union Foundation 1007 Cameron Street, Alexandria, VA 22314 Tel: 703.836.8602

http://acuf.org/issues/issue99/080114news.asp

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3DHS / Pinochet Legacy
« on: January 23, 2008, 03:11:23 AM »
 Pinochet Legacy
by Paul M. Weyrich

General Augusto Pinochet was laid to rest after several years of illness, which prevented the Chilean Supreme Court from hearing criminal charges against him. I well recall the dark days of the early 1970s. We had cut and run from Viet Nam. The Communists were on the march in Angola and Mozambique. Salvadore Allende had been elected by a minority of the electorate and was busy moving Chile to a Communist state.

The Soviet Union, which seemed invincible, announced the Brezhnev Doctrine. Simply stated it was this: Once a Communist country, always a Communist country.

There was no turning back. You could never vote to undo a Communist regime or to overthrow such a regime by other means. If a state turned Communist it would remain a Communist regime forever.

Allende had been elected by a minority of the voters in a three-way split among the electorate. The outright conservative candidate received almost a third of the vote, the centrist candidate received nearly a third of the vote and finally the Communists under the banner of Allende received just over a third of the vote. He interpreted this as a mandate.

Pinochet staged a coup. He bombed the Presidential Palace in Santiago and took over communications in Chile. Pinochet?s saving of Chile from the Communists was ironic. Allende himself had placed the military under the control of Pinochet because he believed the military would be loyal to him. When the moment of truth came, Allende killed himself with a gun given to him by his pal Fidel Castro.

Pinochet took over Chile and ran it with a firm hand. Recognizing that he did not know anything about economics, he turned to the University of Chicago. Chicago economic scholars told him to initiate a free market. He did so. And it worked. Soon Chile was the most prosperous country in the region.

Pinochet did run Chile with an iron fist. Interestingly, when I was giving training seminars in the former Soviet Union, Pinochet?s name frequently came up. Russian leaders wanted my opinion if the Chilean model would be good for Russia.

In due course Pinochet promulgated a Constitution. He got the voters to ratify it. Then he proposed a referendum question, which if passed would allow him to continue in office for some years. If the resolution were defeated he said he would step down. I was part of a team working with the conservative forces in Chile, in preparation for the vote on the referendum. We were able to have breakfast with Pinochet. He was obviously well educated and clearly was prepared to step down if the referendum were defeated.

We trained the conservative forces and the election was reasonably close but his proposition clearly was defeated. So he stepped down. Chile had prompted the late great Jeanne Kirkpatrick to distinguish between totalitarian and authoritarian regimes. The Soviet Union was totalitarian, she opined. Chile was authoritarian.

When I went to Chile I was amazed to find freedom of the press. Far more than half of the media was highly critical of Pinochet. At that time there was no opposition press in the Soviet Union. Indeed, in Chile there was freedom of assembly. All sorts of groups and potential political parties were preparing for that resolution.

I asked Pinochet point blank if indeed he would be prepared to step down in light of defeat of his resolution. He told me he absolutely would do so. He kept his word.

Pinochet should go down in history as a liberator. He, alone, reversed the Brezhnev Doctrine. Today Chile is a prosperous left-of-center nation. People there have health-savings accounts and have better health care than in any other Latin American country. Pinochet made that happen. His free market reforms made Chile into a prosperous nation. He even looked after the poor with medical care.

Yet what he is known for, it seems to me, are the deaths of some 3,000 people and the torture of others. As William F. Buckley reminded us, Pinochet ?spoke with passion to say he had not himself known about, let alone authorized any of the random killings and torture laid at his door.?

Perhaps he did not know of these killings and the torture of the living. First, let it be said: He fought a war. And when you fight a war, people will end up dead. Second, to this day there are those who vilify Pinochet. I believe they cannot forgive him for reversing the Brezhnev Doctrine. He showed that you can overthrow a Communist regime and set it on a road to freedom. He was an authoritarian who agreed to step down, albeit reluctantly, when he lost the confidence of the people. Name me one Communist dictator of that era who stepped down when his efforts went astray. Not in Hungary, not in Poland, not in Estonia, not in Czechoslovakia. If something went wrong one Communist was replaced with another.

The Left in Chile set out to punish Pinochet. They never succeeded. Either he won an appeal or he became too ill to testify. I know it is heresy to say this but the people of Chile should thank Pinochet. He saved their nation from a brutal Communist ?experiment.? The Chilean people should ask the people who lived in the Soviet Empire how it was to live there. No free market. No free press. No freedom of assembly. I will light a candle in memory of Pinochet, the man who had the courage to take on the Soviet Empire.

Paul M. Weyrich is Chairman and CEO of the Free Congress Foundation.

http://acuf.org/issues/issue75/070108news.asp

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3DHS / The Paulonomics Factor
« on: January 23, 2008, 02:55:17 AM »

January 22, 2008, 8:00 a.m.

The Paulonomics Factor
Ron Paul can?t win, but he could make a real difference in the economics debate.

By Donald Luskin

Republican presidential hopeful Ron Paul sounds radical when he advocates the elimination of the individual income tax, a return to a gold standard, the wholesale downsizing of the federal government, and the abolition of the Internal Revenue Service and the Federal Reserve. The media and the other presidential candidates treat him as a nut. Indeed, Paul often enough opens himself up to that treatment in the flamboyant way he expresses himself. Sometimes he even seems to relish his image as a gadfly on the political fringe.

But it?s time to start taking the ten-term Texas congressman seriously. He tied for second-place (with John McCain) in Nevada on Saturday. He beat both Rudolph Giuliani and Fred Thompson in Michigan (he also beat Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina and Thompson in New Hampshire). And Paul now holds the record for the most money raised ? $6 million ? on a single day in a primary season by any candidate in history. It would be a real mistake to think of Paul as the Dennis Kucinich of the right.

Nut or not, Paul isn?t going away. His message is combining intense opposition to the war in Iraq with a strong agenda for free-market capitalism. So it?s drawing grass-roots support from both parties. Even if it?s a bridge too far for him to capture the GOP nomination, he could mount an insurgent run for the presidency with cross-party appeal and fundraising power, probably as the nominee of the Libertarian party (on whose ticket he ran for president in 1988). He could end up shaping the coming election as H. Ross Perot did the 1992 race ? denying either major-party candidate the mandate of a majority of the popular vote, and shifting the center of gravity on important issues.

For many conservatives, what makes Paul seem like a nut is his absolute opposition to the war in Iraq and his insistence on immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Middle East and most of the rest of the world. On the other hand, his views on abortion are perfectly in line with mainstream conservative values (although this side of Paul never seems to get any attention).

On the economics front, Paul is a delightful paradox. If you crack the nut shell and look objectively at what Paul is really advocating, conservatives will find that Paulonomics looks an awful lot like Reaganomics. Paulonomics emerges as a refreshing return to conservative roots: small government, low taxes, deregulation, and sound money. If Paulonomics seems nutty, that may say more about the sad state of events today, with ?big government conservatism? having become the new touchstone.

The core concept of Paulonomics is the reduction in the size and cost of the federal government. Irking many of today?s conservatives, Paul emphasizes how this should include scaling back what he calls American ?militarism,? beginning with a pullout of Iraq.

But embracing a more classic fiscal conservatism, Paul would outright eliminate what he believes are wasteful and counterproductive federal programs, such as the departments of Education and Energy. Nutty? Most Republicans wouldn?t dare talk about eliminating the Department of Education in the age of ?No Child Left Behind.? But Paul reminded me in a recent interview that it wasn?t so many election cycles ago that scrapping this department was an official plank of the GOP platform.

And if you mean it about cutting the cost of government, you?ve got to after the big-ticket items. As to the biggest-ticket items of all, Paul would decommission Social Security and Medicare by honoring obligations to those who are utterly dependent, but letting young people opt out of both systems entirely. Nutty? Let?s be honest: Most conservatives want to do exactly this, but are afraid to say so in a political environment where even mandatory personal accounts are vilified as a ?risky scheme,? as Al Gore famously put it.

With all that and more gone from the federal budget, it?s not so nutty for Paul to talk about eliminating the individual income tax and the intrusive bureaucracy that administers it. Paul points out that today?s level of federal tax revenues, without the income tax, is sufficient to meet all the government?s expenses as they stood not so many years ago. The problem is that the size, scope, and cost of government has grown so much. Would it be such a nutty trade-off to roll back the clock on government expenditures if it meant eliminating income taxes for all Americans?

Paul deplores the federal deficit, but insists the only way ?to solve that problem is to cut spending, not to raise taxes ? or to not lower taxes when you get a chance.? As a first step he advocates the elimination of all taxes on capital ? estates, capital gains, interest income, and dividends. He told me, ?It?s capital that you need to make capitalism work.? He says the idea that most excites young voters is his proposal to eliminate income taxes on tips: ?It?s a big deal if you?re a family struggling and if a second member of the family is working and trying to pay the bills.? Nothing nutty about any of that.

Paul may be the anti-Reagan when it comes to foreign affairs and the military. But he out-Reagans Reagan in his unwavering opposition to the government regulation of business. He may have seemed like a nut when he was one of only three congressmen to vote against the Sarbanes-Oxley Act in 2002. But weren?t the real nuts the conservative congressmen who got swept up in a witch-hunt against ?corporate crooks,? and voted to impose the most sweeping, burdensome, anti-competitive, and costly financial regulation in a generation?

Paul is an advocate of free trade ? to a fault. He believes deeply in unrestricted trade between people and nations. Yet he votes against free-trade agreements such as NAFTA and CAFTA because he believes that trade is a right, not a gift for Congress to bestow in certain circumstances. Without such agreements, the reality is that trade is probably less free than it is with them. Is Paul a nut for letting the perfect be the enemy of the good? Perhaps, but for Paul it?s a point of principle. He told me, ?I don?t call them free-trade agreements; I call them managed trade agreements.? Instead, Paul would like to see a simple policy of ?low and uniform? tariffs for all products from all nations.

Perhaps the most unusual element of Paulonomics is the idea of abolishing the Federal Reserve. For Paul, this is another way to eliminate government interference and to lower taxes ? in this case to lower what he calls ?the inflation tax.? Do we need the Fed to be a lender of last resort to aid in financial crises, such as the present sub-prime mess? Paul says no: ?the lender of last resort is just the printer of last resort, the inflationist of last resort.?

Most politicians fall all over themselves in public adulation of the reigning Fed chairman. But Paul has had the courage to grill these unelected economic central planners when they come before his House committee. He asks the tough questions that others fear to ask, and they?re the same questions that are often asked by economic commentators on this website, including me. Most prominently, how is it the Fed continues to operate on the demonstrably false premise that rapid economic growth is, ipso facto, inflationary?

Paul, however, can be his own worst enemy on this subject when, in debates, he seems to blame all our economic challenges on inflation, or when he buys into some of the conspiracy theories that have surrounded the Fed in various forms since its inception. In a recent grilling of Ben Bernanke, Paul made an issue of the discontinuation of M3 monetary aggregate statistics, as though the Fed had done this in order to hide something. Okay, that was nutty.

But as a first step toward eliminating the Fed, Paul advocates ?legalizing competition ? allow gold and silver to circulate with the dollar, and take off all the taxes on gold and silver money.?

Ah, gold! The mere mention of it in today?s modern economy brands you as a nut, or at least an economic hick. But remember, American money was linked to gold in one way or another for most of our history, until 1971 in fact. In his first year in office as president, Ronald Reagan established a blue-ribbon commission to investigate a possible return to gold. It went nowhere, but was Reagan a nut to ask the question? More fundamentally, is there anything nutty about money that would be, as Paul advocates, ?convertible and redeemable in something of real value??

For all his apparent extremism, there?s no other candidate who has managed to excite both Democrat and Republican voters by combining an anti-war message that irritates conservatives with a free-market message that irritates liberals. Nutty? Or brilliant?

If I?m right and Ron Paul doesn?t just fade away as the primary season progresses, he?ll make a real difference. His anti-war message would make life difficult for Hillary Clinton, by drawing away the most pacifist elements of the Democratic base. But it?s on the economics side where I think he could make the biggest impact. In an election year in which bigger government, higher taxes, and protectionism seem to have so much momentum, Paulonomics may be just what is needed to rebalance the debate in favor of growth.

? Donald Luskin is chief investment officer of Trend Macrolytics LLC, an independent economics and investment-research firm. He welcomes your visit to his blog and your comments at don@trendmacro.com.
National Review Online - http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Y2Q5MDM2NzZkNzU5ZDEwYTI3ODg5YjY2YWZlMjFkYTc=

459
3DHS / Stocks tumble worldwide on fears of U.S. recession
« on: January 22, 2008, 03:47:29 AM »
www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-tue_marketsjan22,1,3164321.story
chicagotribune.com
Stocks tumble worldwide on fears of U.S. recession
Volatile day forecast for Wall Street traders

By William Sluis

Tribune reporter

11:49 PM CST, January 21, 2008

A sell-off in global stock markets on a day when Wall Street was taking a respite, celebrating Martin Luther King Jr. Day, sent a chill through investors anticipating that Tuesday may bring a chaotic start to trading when U.S. markets reopen.

In a grim portent, futures on the Dow Jones industrial average were off by as much as 500 points. The Dow has fallen by more than 2,000 points, or about 14 percent, from its peak reached in October.

"We could have a messy opening," said Chicago economist Carl Tannenbaum, who said the wave of overseas pessimism seen Monday is hard to explain. "Much of the blame was placed on recession fears, but those fears have been expressed many times in recent weeks."

There was no particular trigger to Monday's huge sell-off, he said. But other analysts said the biggest factor is a new wave of pessimism about the global banking sector.

While others were eager to blame a $145 billion tax-stimulus plan offered by President Bush late last week, Tannenbaum said, "It's easy to take a negative view of the proposal, but many people have been positive about it."

The downbeat mood began in Asia and spread to Europe, leaving no major market unscathed.

In many cases, the sell-offs were stunning. Britain's benchmark FTSE-100 slumped 5.5 percent; France's CAC-40 index tumbled 6.8 percent; and Germany's blue-chip DAX 30 plunged 7.2 percent.

In Asia, India's benchmark stock index tumbled 7.4 percent, while Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng index plummeted 5.5 percent, its biggest percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

"It's another horrible day," said Francis Lun, a general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong. "Today it's because of disappointment that the U.S. stimulus package is too little, too late, and investors feel it won't help the economy recover."

Canadian stocks fell as well, with the S&P/TSX composite index on the Toronto Stock Exchange losing 4.7 percent. In Brazil, stocks plunged 6.6 percent on Sao Paulo's Bovespa exchange.

Stocks lost value in 42 of the 43 nations with widely followed markets; the only exception was Sri Lanka.

The losses continued early Tuesday in Asia. Japan's Nikkei 225 average was down 4.4 percent in the morning session, and the Hang Seng was off 5 percent.

Economist Brian Wesbury said part of the problem Monday stemmed from a major downgrade of a firm that insures municipal debts. When such debt is marked lower, banks are forced to write it down against their capital.

"This affects the ability of banks to lend, and it helped to create an overreaction among investors overseas," said Wesbury, of First Trust Advisors in Lisle.

"There is an incredible amount of fear in the world," he added, even though most economies remain robust. The fears are based in part, Wesbury said, on worries that so-called derivative instruments could default.

Derivatives are contracts and options traded on interest rates, currencies and debts. At stake are trillions of dollars in assets.

Wesbury said he believes such fears are overblown, but they have become widespread. American consumers have continued to spend at a moderate rate of growth, he said, and the job market remains strong.

Comments about the possibility of a recession by President Bush and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, he said, "may have helped to incite anxiety, even though we have a very sturdy and resilient economy."

Their comments were intended to soothe global fears but may not have succeeded, Wesbury said.

'Blood on the wall'
All market watchers could do was survey the damage.

"It was all about blood on the wall," said Georges Ugeux, chairman of Galileo Global Advisors, who was visiting the Indian stock exchange, which fell by the equivalent of a 900-point drop in the Dow average. "For them, this is a black Monday."

Analysts said fears about debts are driven by massive losses on loans made to U.S. home buyers. These potentially could cascade through the world financial system.

For example, the Bank of China is now forecast to record a multibillion-dollar loss on U.S. mortgage investments. The bank may write down $2.4 billion for the fourth quarter of 2007 and an equal amount for this year, wrote Dorris Chen, a Shanghai-based analyst at BNP Paribas.

"Bank of China is in a worse situation than expected," said Zheng Tuo, who manages the equivalent of $790 million at Bank of Communications Schroders Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. "Investors are worried the woe will spill over to the whole banking sector."

Analysts said this year's opening on Wall Street has been the worst since the late 1970s.

On Monday, "there was also a problem with another German bank, WestLB, which said it would report a loss of $1.4 billion in 2007 because of its exposure to deteriorating mortgage assets. Other German banks are also reporting worse than expected results," said investment manager Peter Cohan, based in Marlborough, Mass..

"If today's futures are any indication, the Dow Jones industrial average will lose 520 points, or more than 4 percent, when it opens Tuesday morning," he added.

Consumer confidence has been slipping in many European countries as inflation has begun making a comeback in recent months.

Dollar gains
While stocks in the United States may see a rocky opening on Tuesday, "they could steady before the end of the day," Tannenbaum said. "Our markets often act as a firebreak against heavy selling in other parts of the world."

Indeed, the dollar gained Monday against the euro, as oil prices and gold fell on the fears of a global slowdown.

Wesbury said the losses in the Dow Jones industrials since October are about equal to the setback suffered during a single day in the widely trumpeted Black Monday crash of 1987.

"Even though everyone thought we would see a recession in 1987, it just didn't happen," he said.

Over the following year, stock prices recovered rapidly, and the economy kept growing.

wsluis@tribune.com

Copyright ? 2008, Chicago Tribune

460
3DHS / Huckabee: Amend Constitution to be in 'God's standards'
« on: January 15, 2008, 08:21:18 PM »

Huckabee: Amend Constitution to be in 'God's standards'
01/15/2008 @ 7:31 am
Filed by David Edwards and Muriel Kane

The United States Constitution never uses the word "God" or makes mention of any religion, drawing its sole authority from "We the People." However, Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee thinks it's time to put an end to that.
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"I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution," Huckabee told a Michigan audience on Monday. "But I believe it's a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living god. And that's what we need to do -- to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards so it lines up with some contemporary view."

When Willie Geist reported Huckabee's opinion on MSNBC's Morning Joe, co-host Mika Brzezinski was almost speechless, and even Joe Scarborough couldn't immediately find much to say beyond calling it "interesting,"

Scarborough finally suggested that while he believes "evangelicals should be able to talk politics ... some might find that statement very troubling, that we're going to change the Constitution to be in line with the Bible. And that's all I'm going to say."

Geist further noted of Huckabee that if "someone without his charm," said that, "he'd be dismissed as a crackpot, but he's Mike Huckabee and he's bascially the front-runner."


This video is from MSNBC's Morning Joe, broadcast January 15, 2008.

Follow link to video...

461
3DHS / Change for the Better...
« on: January 14, 2008, 04:04:32 AM »

462
3DHS / Ron Paul at Google
« on: January 12, 2008, 02:18:37 PM »

463
3DHS / Who Will Control Your Thermostat?
« on: January 06, 2008, 11:36:59 PM »
   


January 04, 2008
Who Will Control Your Thermostat?
By Joseph Somsel
"There is nothing wrong with your thermostat. Do not attempt to adjust the temperature. We are controlling your power consumption. If we wish to make it hotter, we will turn off your air conditioner. If we wish to make it cooler, we will turn off your heater.  For the next millennium, sit quietly and we will control your home temperature. We repeat, there is nothing wrong with your thermostat. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to... SACRAMENTO!"*

Building codes and engineering standards are generally good things.  Updating and improving codes and standards better protect us against earthquakes, for example, as we better understand the weak points and failure modes of existing construction techniques.  Requirements that ensure proper handling of sanitary wastes can be largely credited with the increased life spans in industrialized countries through the reduction of communicable diseases.

In California, we have 236 pages of state-mandated standards for building energy efficiency, known as Title 24.  This prescribes methods for calculating the sizes of your home windows, the capacities of your air conditioner and heater, the thickness of the insulation in your attic.  A small cottage industry has sprung up to perform these engineering calculations that are required for any new commercial or residential construction or major change to existing structures.  While I've never personally been involved in this branch of retail professional engineering, I've had colleagues who would moonlight doing Title 24 calcs. It is now just part of the mandated paperwork involved in the construction business these days in California.

A new revision to Title 24 is in the works for 2008[2] and it includes a number of improvements and enhancements that are largely good sense items and should be non-controversial.  For example a new swimming pool will probably need larger diameter pipes between the pool, the filter and the pump than was former practice.  This will reduce the fluid friction losses that your pump must overcome and hence reduce the pump's consumption of electricity, albeit at a minor increase in first cost for the larger pipes and fittings.  Another good idea is a requirement for lighter colored shingles, the "Cool Roof Initiative."  That is intended to reduce heat loss over cold winter nights by emission and heat gain on summer days by absorption. My neighbor and I both recently discovered that it is difficult to get roofers to NOT use dark colored shingles for some reason.  Having a little state muscle behind us will help, especially for renters.

What should be controversial in the proposed revisions to Title 24 is the requirement for what is called a "programmable communicating thermostat" or PCT. Every new home and every change to existing homes' central heating and air conditioning systems will required to be fitted with a PCT beginning next year following the issuance of the revision.  Each PCT will be fitted with a "non-removable " FM receiver that will allow the power authorities to increase your air conditioning temperature setpoint or decrease your heater temperature setpoint to any value they chose.  During "price events" those changes are limited to +/- four degrees F and you would be able to manually override the changes.  During "emergency events" the new setpoints can be whatever the power authority desires and you would not be able to alter them.

In other words, the temperature of your home will no longer be yours to control.  Your desires and needs can and will be overridden by the state of California through its public and private utility organizations.  All this is for the common good, of course.

In some technocratic worldview, it does have a justification.  California's population growth and its affluence have strained the state's electric and natural gas resources.  Famously, rolling blackouts have occurred due to shortages of electrical generation during peak periods.  Unbeknownst to most citizens, short supplies of natural gas during cold weather have resulted in curtailments of delivery to industrial and large commercial customers.  Those last kilowatts tend to be very expensive kilowatts and tend to drive up the average cost of electricity for all.

But the discomforts of compliance will fall unevenly across the state.  Come the next heat wave,  the elites might be comfortably lolling in La Jolla's ocean breezes or basking in Berkeley by the Bay, while the Central Valley's poor peons are baking in Bakersfield and frying in Fresno.  California's coastal climate, where the elites live, seldom requires air conditioning.  I've lived a middle class life style in Mill Valley, San Francisco, San Luis Obispo and now San Jose, and never have I lived in a home with air conditioning.  Even in relatively warm San Jose, separated from the Pacific Ocean by the Coast Range, ceiling fans will get a family through the worst.

How will the state ensure compliance and prevent free riders?  As above, coastal elites are already free riders as they will see the benefits while paying none of the costs except for the higher first cost of a PCT.  For initial construction or home remodeling, it will be one of those items a building inspector will check before signing a certificate of occupancy.  Replacing one's mandated PCT with a bootleg unit from Nevada should be within the skill of most homeowners.   A low powered FM transmitter might easily be devised to override the broadcast commands for low cost.  Even a metal wire shield around your PCT could block its FM reception.   Adding a window air conditioner or an electric space heater are other work-arounds as neither have requirements for PCTs  - yet.  Sweating for the common good is for the chumps.

Another problem is that PCTs will obscure the price signals to power plant developers telling them that it will be profitable to build additional generation.  As explained in this article, a deregulated electric market will come to resemble other commodity markets, like pork bellies, where shortages cause high prices that induce new capacity and low (or obscured) prices inhibit investment.  When bacon prices are high, farmers arrange dates between their sows and their boars in hopes of future, profitable piglets. When bacon prices are low, farmers are more interested in chastity for their herds.  If the state "shaves" peak loads by adjusting your thermostat during "price events," generators will not receive the higher prices.  This effect will reinforce electrical shortages much like rent control discourages apartment building.

The real question poised by this invasion of the sanctity of our homes by state power is -- why are we doing this?  It seems to me to be the wrong fix for a problem that we don't have to have.  The common sense alternative is to build new power plants so that power shortages don't occur.   Of course, they can't be coal or nuclear power plants!  The coastal elites have their minds set against those undesirables. The state has wasted billions of our dollars on wind generation that hasn't helped to meet peak loads. For natural gas, offshore drilling should be considered.  While we have one liquefied natural gas terminal in Mexico supplying us with Indonesian and, in the near future, Russian, LNG, another receiving terminal to be supplied by Australian LNG was rejected by the State Coastal Commission.

While nowhere in the Bill of Rights is there explicitly a right to set one's own thermostat to whatever  temperature one desires (and is able to pay for),  the new PCT requirement certainly seems to violate the "a man's home is his castle" common law dictum.

Californians have until January 30th to send their opinions and comments on the pending revisions to Title 24 to the California Energy Commission[1].  Legislators too[2].

*With apologies to the creators of the TV science fiction series, "The Outer Limits."

______________________________________________________________________________________
[1] Specifically re "2008 Building Energy Efficiency Standards Docket # 07-BSTD-1."  Try contacting Chris Gekas who is the process administrator of the proceedings at cgekas@energy.state.ca.us.

[2] Contact information for the state legislators is here:


Page Printed from: http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/01/who_will_control_your_thermost.html at January 06, 2008 - 10:36:04 PM EST

464
3DHS / Hillary thanks Iowa
« on: January 06, 2008, 11:17:45 PM »

465
3DHS / The GOP's Time for Choosing
« on: January 06, 2008, 04:53:49 PM »
WSJ.com  OpinionJournal

CAMPAIGN 2008
The GOP's Time for Choosing
Mike Huckabee would make the party more like Europe's Christian Democrats.

BY HENRY OLSEN
Sunday, January 6, 2008 12:01 a.m.

Mike Huckabee's stunning victory in Thursday's Iowa caucuses does more than change the GOP nomination race. With a platform explicitly grounded in his Christian faith and a populist economic message, Mr. Huckabee offers the Republican Party a new political narrative, light years removed from the limited government principles governing the GOP in the Reagan and post-Reagan era.

This pro-faith, pro-government message may sound strange to American ears--but it is a staple of conservative political parties on the European continent. Mr. Huckabee, in other words, essentially gives Republicans a choice: Does the GOP want to become a Christian Democratic party? To answer that question, Republicans should look carefully at Christian Democracy to see if it is a model worth emulating.

Christian Democracy is a reaction to the classical liberalism and socialism that came of age in late-19th-century Europe. Both of these movements threatened the faithful with their secularism and economic theories. Classical liberal emphasis on unfettered markets evoked fears of untrammeled greed and exploitation of workers; socialism made many fear for the future of private property.

Christian Democrat parties have always distinguished themselves from liberals and socialists, favoring private property and traditional values while supporting government regulation and taxation to ameliorate what they perceive to be capitalism's defects. The German Christian Democratic Union (CDU), for example, is quite explicit about this, claiming it is the "party of the political center."

These parties uphold marriage and the traditional family as the bedrocks of society. They also advocate economic policies typified by the CDU's ideal of a "social market economy," which emphasizes the need for both government-provided welfare and capitalism. Contemporary Christian Democratic parties are also some of the staunchest supporters of rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. They reach this conclusion from the principle of "Christian stewardship," which the Norwegian Christian Democrats say "implies that the resources of the Earth should be taken care of for the best of present and future generations."

Christian Democracy is a different beast than Reagan-era conservatism, which drew upon the traditions of the Founding Fathers--which are extremely suspicious of government power, regulation and redistribution. It is virtually impossible to imagine a Christian Democratic leader inveighing against government intervention in the economy as Ronald Reagan did in his first inaugural address. ("In the present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.")

American conservatism also differs from Christian Democracy in its attitude toward faith. Reagan conservatism is faith-friendly, supporting the free exercise of religion and traditional morality. But it does not define its political principles with reference to its faith; in this view, Christianity is consistent with proper political principles, but is not the primary wellspring of those principles.

While virtually no one on the American right explicitly calls for the adoption of Christian Democracy, others besides Mr. Huckabee admire and advocate similar principles. For example, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's book, "It Takes a Family," echoed the Christian Democratic emphasis on placing the health of the family ahead of the health of the economy as a political principle.

Perhaps the most prominent contemporary apostle for these views is former White House speechwriter Michael Gerson. In his recent book, "Heroic Conservatism," he argues that a conservatism which fails to embrace the energetic use of government power for good will be both immoral and unsuccessful.

Immoral losers: That's quite a charge to levy against Reagan conservatives. But perhaps Mr. Gerson is correct: Perhaps a more European approach to governing from the right is better. So let's look at the record.

Every country which has been primarily governed by Christian Democrats since World War II (Germany, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands) is poorer than the United States, with substantially higher unemployment rates and slower economic growth. The differences aren't even close.

The per capita, purchasing-power-adjusted GDP of the richest of these countries--Holland--is 15% lower than that of the U.S. The GDP of every other country is at least 20% lower. The U.S. unemployment rate in 2006 was 4.6%; the average of the Christian Democratic four was over 7%, and it was that low only because the Netherlands diverts many of its unemployed to a disability program that enrolls nearly 10% of the workforce.

Incomes are more equally distributed: America's Gini coefficient, a widely used measure of income inequality, is much higher than in any of these countries. But that is simply the flip side of the other statistics. Christian Democratic countries choose lower incomes and higher unemployment as the price for their commitment to social welfare.

But these countries also fare worse on common measures of family well-being. German and Belgian divorce rates are higher than those in America, and the Netherlands' rate is roughly comparable. The 2005 out-of-wedlock birth rate was slightly lower in Germany (29%) than the U.S. (37%), but it was higher in Belgium (49%) and about the same in the Netherlands (35%). The overall birth rate in the U.S. is about 2.1 children per woman in her lifetime, about the level needed to keep the population stable. None of the Christian Democrat countries come close to that; Italy's is a meager 1.2.

It is not the case that Christian Democrat-led countries fare better at sustaining faith. According to a 2006 Harris poll, 73% of Americans believe in God. Similar polls taken in 2005 and 2006 show only 62% of Italians, 43% of Belgians, 41% of Germans and 34% of Dutch believe. A 2003 Harris poll found that 44% of Americans attend religious services at least once a week. According to the 2004 European Social Survey, fewer than 15% of Dutch and Belgians, and 10% of Germans, attend services that frequently.

Is a faith-based, pro-government party necessary for political success? It is hard to draw inspiration from Christian Democratic victories, which are largely due to Europe's proportional-representation electoral systems. The most successful parties win between 25% and 40% of the vote and form a government because a majority coalition cannot be formed without them.

But America's first-past-the-post system encourages factions to combine into a single party so that they are likelier to get over 50% of the vote, a level of support that an American Christian Democratic party is unlikely to attain. The 2004 exit poll showed that only 42% of American voters attend religious services at least weekly, and that includes African-Americans, Jews and other minorities very unlikely for historical reasons to support a party of the right. Getting to 50% would require a Christian Democratic party to make compromises with non-religious voters, something that would weaken the very impetus animating the party.

The political debate for the last decade has been between a Democratic Party which essentially argues America should be more like Europe--more statist, more secular, more pacifist--and a Reagan-influenced GOP which argues America should be more like its historical self. The Mike Huckabee/Christian Democratic movement is an attempt to break this logjam by looking to a different European model, one that says we can be more statist without being more secular or pacifist. In deciding how to react to the Huckabee challenge, Reagan's GOP descendants now face their own time for choosing.

Mr. Olsen is a vice president at the American Enterprise Institute and director of its National Research Initiative.

Copyright ? 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110011088




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